# Venezuela Examines Leaving OPEC as Washington Negotiates Long-Term Access to Its Oilfields

The country pumped 1.16 million barrels a day in July, less than half its output a decade ago, while Gulf shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to between 6 million and 8 million barrels a day.

- Published: 2026-08-28T05:07:20.010Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-08-28/venezuela-examines-leaving-opec-as-washington-negotiates-lon
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [BFM.ru](https://www.bfm.ru/news/616366), [The Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/08/28/world/strait-hormuz-oil-rising/)

Venezuela is studying an exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which it helped found in 1960, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-27/venezuela-weighs-opec-exit-after-decades-as-it-deepens-us-ties), and the Russian business outlet [BFM.ru relayed the report to its readers](https://www.bfm.ru/news/616366), noting that the idea has come up in conversations with United States officials. No decision has been taken. Separately, American officials are working on an arrangement that would [lock in a group of Venezuelan oilfields for development by US companies](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/oil/2026/08/28/us-nears-deal-to-secure-long-term-access-to-venezuelas-oil-reserves-sources-say/), with the resulting output directed to the United States.

The immediate supply effect would be small. Venezuela pumped about 1.16 million barrels a day in July, according to a Bloomberg survey, less than half what it produced ten years ago, and it has missed its OPEC quota for years. The [Business Standard account](https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/venezuela-weighs-exit-from-opec-as-us-discusses-stake-in-oil-fields-126082800085_1.html) frames the significance the way most analysts do: the real question is what a departure would say about the cohesion of the Saudi-led group, not about barrels.

The second half of the oil picture sits at the other end of the world. [The Japan Times reports](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/08/28/world/strait-hormuz-oil-rising/) that roughly 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz as Gulf producers increase shipments, which has held prices down. That is still far below the volumes that passed through the strait before this year's conflict. Iran has said the waterway stays restricted until the United States meets the conditions agreed in June, including an end to the blockade of Iranian ports, compensation and sanctions relief, [as reported by Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/27/iran-qatar-hold-hormuz-talks-amid-intl-hopes-dialogue-with-us-will-resume).

Brent crude traded [around $88 a barrel on Thursday](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil), after three consecutive sessions of losses. Two factors are pulling the price in opposite directions: rising Gulf shipments, which push it down, and repeated attacks on Russian export infrastructure, which push it up.

## What this means

Two supply channels are being rebuilt under political control rather than by price. Washington is negotiating direct claims on Venezuelan reserves, and Gulf producers are restoring Hormuz volumes under a partial arrangement with Tehran. Both depend on a negotiation that either side can suspend, which keeps a risk premium in freight and insurance costs even as the headline crude price falls. Refiners on the US Gulf Coast configured for heavy Venezuelan crude gain if the field deal closes, and OPEC's remaining members lose leverage over price if a founding member leaves the group while it is already producing below its output ceiling.

## What to watch

- Whether Venezuela's government makes a formal statement about OPEC membership, which would turn a sourced report into a policy fact other members must answer.
- Hormuz transit volumes over the coming weeks, since a sustained return toward pre-conflict levels would remove more risk premium from crude prices than any OPEC decision.
- Terms of the US-Venezuela field arrangement, in particular whether supply is contractually committed to American buyers, which would reroute physical flows rather than simply add barrels.