# Saudi Arabia Loses Its Hormuz Bypass as Houthis Complete Control of Bab al-Mandeb

With the East-West pipeline to Yanbu shut after drone strikes and the Red Sea exit contested, a round trip from the Gulf to Asian refiners via the Cape of Good Hope would take roughly 100 days, Japanese reporting says.

- Published: 2026-09-13T05:20:55.617Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-09-13/saudi-arabia-loses-its-hormuz-bypass-as-houthis-complete-con
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [The Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09/13/world/saudi-pipeline-houthis-red-sea/), [TASS](https://tass.com/economy/2186883), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/9/13/yemens-houthis-seize-strategic-mayun-island-in-red-sea)

Saudi Arabia has lost, at least for now, both of the routes it uses to move crude to customers. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to ordinary commercial traffic since late February, with convoys moving only under naval escort. The kingdom responded by pushing about 5 million barrels a day into the 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. That line is now shut after drone strikes that [Riyadh and Baghdad both say originated in Iraq](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09/13/world/saudi-pipeline-houthis-red-sea/).

The other part of the problem is at the opposite end of the Red Sea. Houthi forces [seized Mayun Island](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/9/13/yemens-houthis-seize-strategic-mayun-island-in-red-sea), also called Perim, in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, days after taking the port of Mokha. [CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-houthis-mokha-red-sea-yemen.html) that the group now holds the physical approaches to a waterway that carried roughly 8 million barrels a day of oil in the second quarter.

Russian state agency TASS, citing the Japanese daily Asahi, [reported that delivery times from Saudi Arabia to Asian buyers could rise about two and a half times](https://tass.com/economy/2186883) if Bab al-Mandeb closes, because cargoes would then sail around the Cape of Good Hope on a round trip of about 100 days.

Prices have moved less than the physical disruption implies. Brent traded above $107 a barrel early Friday in Asia, according to [Gulf News](https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/brent-crude-tops-107-after-houthis-seizure-of-mokha-near-bab-al-mandab-strait-1.500670457), then settled at $104.61. The gap between that benchmark price and the actual cost of shipping is where the added expense is showing up: war-risk cover for Red Sea transits reached about 1 percent of hull value in the third quarter, and Egypt's Suez Canal revenue has fallen from $10.25 billion to under $4 billion.

## What this means

Longer voyages tie up tanker capacity, so moving the same volume of oil requires more ships and more insurance to reach the same refineries. Asian refiners with thin inventories are the first to pay, through higher landed costs. Tanker owners and war-risk underwriters receive that added cost as revenue, while Gulf producers receive lower netbacks, the price left after transport costs, because buyers deduct the cost of freight. Egypt loses hard-currency revenue from canal traffic at a time it needs that income, and the extra cost reaches consumers through fuel prices rather than through wages.

## What to watch

- Whether Saudi Aramco restarts the East-West pipeline or keeps it idle, which indicates how seriously Riyadh expects further strikes from Iraqi territory.
- Tanker war-risk premiums for Red Sea and Gulf transits, because insurers withdrawing coverage stops cargoes more reliably than any military blockade does.
- Whether Asian buyers sign new term contracts with Atlantic Basin or Russian suppliers, which would make the rerouting of trade durable rather than temporary.