# A shortage of supertankers is redrawing where refiners buy their oil

Scarce very large crude carriers make distant barrels uneconomic just as Gulf routing costs rise, and Guyana is collecting the gains.

- Published: 2026-09-20T05:12:09.557Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-09-20/a-shortage-of-supertankers-is-redrawing-where-refiners-buy-t
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [The Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/20/oil-supertanker-shortage/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c9d13509-7a93-40a9-b2d4-c3292028813a?syn-25a6b1a6=1), [Kommersant](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8970683)

The world is running short of the largest crude tankers, and the shortage is changing which barrels get bought. The Japan Times reports that the shortage [makes faraway cargoes less attractive](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/20/oil-supertanker-shortage/) and pushes refiners toward supplies closer to home when they can find them. Freight costs are no longer a negligible part of the delivered price of crude. They are now part of the buying decision itself.

Three forces are compounding. Sanctions have absorbed a large share of the tanker fleet into opaque trades that do not return to the mainstream market. Conflict in the Gulf has lengthened voyages and raised war-risk insurance. And shipowners have been slow to order replacements for an ageing fleet while future fuel rules remain unsettled, so capacity is not arriving to meet demand.

The routing effect extends well beyond oil. The Financial Times reports that the Strait of Hormuz, once a transit point for cargo ranging from [helium to corn](https://www.ft.com/content/c9d13509-7a93-40a9-b2d4-c3292028813a?syn-25a6b1a6=1), has lost that general trade as businesses reroute at higher cost. Chokepoint risk, once treated as a rare, low-probability event, is now a permanent cost.

The winners are producers whose barrels are close to buyers. [Kommersant, citing The New York Times](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8970683), reports that Guyana has become one of the principal beneficiaries of the United States-Iran conflict, raising output as Middle East supply turmoil lifted prices. Atlantic Basin crude reaches Gulf Coast and European refineries on shorter voyages, which means less freight cost, less insurance and less exposure to a closed strait. That advantage is structural, and it persists after any given crisis subsides.

## What this means

When freight and insurance make up a larger share of the delivered price, the same barrel is worth different amounts depending on where it sits, which favours Atlantic Basin producers such as Guyana, Brazil and the United States and penalises Gulf exporters selling into Asia. Refiners in Japan, South Korea and India, which depend on long-haul Middle East crude, face the widest margin compression, and tanker owners collect the transfer through higher rates.

## What to watch

- Very large crude carrier rates on the Gulf to Asia route, the clearest indicator of whether the vessel shortage is worsening.
- New tanker orders at Korean and Chinese shipyards, because a sustained ordering cycle would signal owners expect these freight economics to last years rather than months.
- Guyana's production guidance and licensing rounds, which show whether Atlantic supply can grow fast enough to matter to global balances.