# United States Completes Iraq Withdrawal as Tehran Receives Washington's Reply

The last American troops left Irbil after a twelve-year mission against the Islamic State, while Iran confirmed it has an official United States response to its proposal to end the seven-month war.

- Published: 2026-10-01T05:16:24.253Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-01/united-states-completes-iraq-withdrawal-as-tehran-receives-w
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: geopolitics
- Sources: [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/2033884/iran-gets-us-response-as-washington-pulls-out-of-iraq), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/01/us-led-coalition-ends-anti-islamic-state-mission-in-iraq-amid-heightened-regional-tensions), [RT](https://www.rt.com/news/646532-uk-iran-involved-terror-plot/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS)

American forces completed their departure from Iraq on Wednesday, ending a [twelve-year mission against the Islamic State group](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/01/us-led-coalition-ends-anti-islamic-state-mission-in-iraq-amid-heightened-regional-tensions) that began in 2014. United States Central Command described the exit from the air base in Irbil as an orderly departure. President Donald Trump called the withdrawal a victory and said it was [time to go home](https://www.cp24.com/news/world/2026/09/30/the-us-military-says-its-withdrawal-of-troops-from-iraq-is-complete/), describing the earlier deployment as a very expensive excursion.

On the same day, Iranian officials said they had received an official United States reply to Tehran's latest proposal to end the seven-month war. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the response to President Masoud Pezeshkian at a cabinet meeting, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told IRNA, without saying what it contained. Dawn reported that Tehran [looks forward to restoring the Islamabad memorandum of understanding](https://www.dawn.com/news/2033884/iran-gets-us-response-as-washington-pulls-out-of-iraq) and that both sides largely agree on the required steps but disagree on their order. Trump separately [denied reports that he had offered sanctions relief](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html), calling the account false.

The two events point in opposite directions. The withdrawal removes American ground exposure in Iraq and with it one of the standing triggers for attacks by Iran-aligned armed groups. The negotiation, mediated through Qatar, remains stuck on sequencing, which is the hardest part of any sanctions arrangement because each side wants the other to move first.

Elsewhere the file stayed active. RT reported that United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham said there are [strong indications Iran played a role](https://www.rt.com/news/646532-uk-iran-involved-terror-plot/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS) in a suspected plot near the Royal Air Force base at Fairford. Iran has consistently rejected such accusations. Brent crude traded near $97 a barrel, up about 7% over the past month, which is the market's own measure of how much of this it believes is settled.

## What this means

The exposure runs through energy and shipping insurance. A completed American withdrawal reduces the number of fixed targets that could trigger an escalation spiral, which marginally lowers the probability of a Gulf supply interruption, while unresolved sequencing in the sanctions talks keeps the option of re-escalation alive and keeps a premium in crude. The actors want different things they can actually deliver: Washington wants its forces out of range and a nuclear arrangement it can present as a win, Tehran wants verified sanctions relief before it concedes anything irreversible. The precedent is the 2015 nuclear agreement, where sequencing of relief against verification took nearly two years to settle and oil carried a shrinking but persistent risk premium throughout. The likelier outcome over the next three to six months is further rounds of indirect talks with partial, reversible steps, and crude holding a geopolitical premium that narrows only when a verification mechanism is published. A formal written agreement covering the order of steps would move this from a managed standoff toward a durable settlement, and renewed strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure would move it the other way.

## What to watch

- Whether Qatar's mediators publish any agreed sequence for sanctions relief and verification, which is the only detail that would turn the current pause into something durable.
- Attacks on shipping or energy infrastructure in Iraq and the Gulf now that American forces are gone, because they would show whether the withdrawal reduced or redistributed the risk.
- Tanker insurance rates for Gulf routes, a direct price measure of how professional risk-takers read the negotiation.