# Gold futures fall below $4,150 an ounce for the first time since September 28 as Treasury yields and the dollar rise

Spot gold traded near $4,129 on Tuesday, about 26% below its 2026 peak, while central bankers told Reuters the metal remains a core reserve asset despite higher bond yields.

- Published: 2026-10-06T05:03:31.630Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-06/gold-futures-fall-below-4-150-an-ounce-for-the-first-time-si
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Kommersant](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9006942), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-retains-key-reserve-status-despite-surging-bond-yields-central-bankers-say-4931551)

The December gold futures contract on New York's Comex exchange fell below $4,150 per troy ounce "for the first time since September 28, according to exchange data," [Kommersant reported](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9006942) early on Tuesday. Spot gold traded near [$4,129 an ounce](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold). [Business Standard](https://www.business-standard.com/finance/personal-finance/gold-is-26-below-its-2026-peak-buy-now-or-wait-what-investors-should-do-126100600129_1.html) calculates that the metal is now about 26% below its peak earlier this year.

The cause is the bond market. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.34%, investors give up more income by holding gold, which pays nothing. The dollar index touched 102.53 on Monday. A [market summary from FinanceFeeds](https://financefeeds.com/global-fx-market-summary-usd-surge-french-fiscal-crisis-and-golds-yield-tug-of-war-shape-markets-5-october-2026/) described gold as unable to rise above $4,200 while yields climb. In India, the largest private buyer of the metal, 24-carat gold sold for about ₹150,040 per 10 grams in Delhi on Tuesday. [Latestly reported](https://www.latestly.com/business/gold-rate-today-october-6-2026-check-22k-and-24k-gold-prices-in-delhi-mumbai-chennai-and-other-cities-7634066.html) that higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar were weighing on prices, while geopolitical risk was providing some support.

Official holders are taking a different view from traders. Central bankers [told Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-retains-key-reserve-status-despite-surging-bond-yields-central-bankers-say-4931551) that gold keeps its key reserve status despite the surge in bond yields. A central bank that buys gold to diversify away from dollar assets is not comparing gold's return with a Treasury coupon. Its concern is whether those dollar assets can be frozen or lose value in real terms. In the short run, futures traders and exchange-traded fund holders set the price. Over longer periods, the official sector's demand is the larger force.

## What this means

Gold is trading on US real yields (interest rates after inflation) and the dollar, not on de-dollarization (central banks moving reserves out of dollar assets). Positive real yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, so leveraged futures holders and exchange-traded funds sell. Central banks buying for reserve diversification are a slower, less price-sensitive source of demand. In 2013, the "taper tantrum" (the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve signaled it would slow its bond purchases) pushed real yields higher, and gold fell by more than a quarter that year even as emerging-market central banks kept buying. That precedent cuts against the sound-money case in the short term. Yields rising because investors doubt fiscal policy are a different signal from yields rising because growth is strong. If long rates keep climbing until something in the financial system breaks, the likely policy response is central-bank buying of bonds, and gold has historically gained from that. The likelier outcome is that gold stays under pressure for the coming weeks while the 10-year yield holds above 5% and the dollar rises. The read is wrong if a disorderly Treasury auction or a credit event forces the Federal Reserve to signal bond purchases, which would quickly reverse the trade that higher real yields set up.

## What to watch

- Official central-bank purchase figures for September. Steady buying while prices fall would confirm that official demand does not depend on price.
- Whether gold holds near its late-September lows. A break below them would show that futures selling is outweighing official buying.
- Any Federal Reserve or Treasury statement on Treasury market liquidity, which would signal that the policy response that typically helps gold is getting closer.