# Parti Québécois wins the Quebec election with 59 of 127 seats and less than 30% of the vote, reopening the independence question

Party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon promises a third referendum but has said he would not hold one before January 2029, and Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to work with the incoming minority government.

- Published: 2026-10-06T05:03:31.630Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-06/parti-qu-b-cois-wins-the-quebec-election-with-59-of-127-seat
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: world
- Sources: [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/6/secessionist-parti-quebecois-wins-quebec-election-in-canada), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/06/quebec-separatists-vow-independence-referendum-after-winning-local-elections-but-falling-s), [The Hindu](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/separatists-win-quebec-election-in-test-for-canada-pm/article71549808.ece)

The Parti Québécois (PQ) won Monday's Quebec election. The party, which wants independence from Canada, was leading or elected in 59 of the province's 127 seats, five short of a majority, [CBC News projected](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/livestory/quebec-election-2026-results-9.7369473). It won less than 30% of the popular vote. [The Hindu reported](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/separatists-win-quebec-election-in-test-for-canada-pm/article71549808.ece) that the federalist vote was split among several parties, which gave the PQ the win. The outgoing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) was projected to win no seats.

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon promised a third referendum on independence, [Al Jazeera reported](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/6/secessionist-parti-quebecois-wins-quebec-election-in-canada). Quebec voted against independence in 1980, and by 50.6% to 49.4% in 1995. St-Pierre Plamondon has said he will hold a vote in his first term, but [not before January 20, 2029](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election), when US President Donald Trump's second term ends. With a minority, he will need support from another party to pass legislation.

Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to work with the incoming Quebec government on jobs, housing and resisting what [Euronews described](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/06/quebec-separatists-vow-independence-referendum-after-winning-local-elections-but-falling-s) as a hostile US administration. The timing of the referendum suggests the PQ sees Washington's policy toward Canada as part of its case for independence.

## What this means

Investors will price the risk through Quebec provincial bonds and the Canadian dollar. Quebec is one of Canada's largest debt issuers, and a credible independence vote would raise questions about how federal debt would be divided, which currency Quebec would use, and how its contracts would be honored. Given the minority result and the 2029 timetable, little needs to be priced now, and the market is unlikely to react strongly at first. Ahead of the 1995 referendum, Quebec bond spreads (the extra yield Quebec pays over comparable bonds) widened and the Canadian dollar weakened in the final weeks, then recovered after the narrow No result. The likelier outcome is that pricing stays calm for months, with sovereignty risk appearing in Quebec spreads only once the government sets a date or puts a referendum question to the National Assembly. The read is wrong if another party agrees to support the PQ on a referendum bill in this term, which would move the risk forward by years.

## What to watch

- Which party agrees to support the PQ minority in the National Assembly. The partner's position on independence will determine whether a referendum bill can pass.
- The gap between Quebec and Ontario bond yields, which measures how much sovereignty risk investors are pricing.
- Polling on support for independence over the next six months. A sustained rise above the PQ's vote share would mean the referendum threat is real.