# Yemeni government forces say they have retaken the Bab el-Mandeb coast as Gulf crude moves out of the region on routes that avoid Hormuz

Standard Chartered estimates that Gulf crude exports excluding Iran are back near pre-war levels even though tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal, with Brent near $102 and Murban near $110.

- Published: 2026-10-06T05:03:31.630Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-06/yemeni-government-forces-say-they-have-retaken-the-bab-el-ma
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/yemeni-government-forces-seize-district-by-bab-elmandeb-military-sources-say-4931376), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Says-Hormuz-Oil-Flows-Are-Far-From-Normal.html), [Globes (Hebrew)](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001558513#utm_source=RSS), [ZeroHedge](https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/five-year-fuel-crisis-why-world-economy-paying-war-it-thinks-ending)

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces advanced along the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday as far as the city of Mocha, the government said. [Reuters reported](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/yemeni-government-forces-seize-district-by-bab-elmandeb-military-sources-say-4931376), citing military sources, that the forces pushed the Houthis out of most of the areas the group took last month. Those areas include an airstrip in the Dhubab district at the mouth of the strait. The Houthis' capture of that district last month moved energy markets. The Saudi-led coalition says it flew 100 fighter jets in continuous support and destroyed 324 "high-value" Houthi targets, [The National reported](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/05/yemen-government-forces-claim-bab-al-mandeb-gains-as-saudi-coalition-says-100-jets-join-houthi-offensive/). [Globes reported](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001558513#utm_source=RSS) that the coalition also announced a "major military operation" by naval forces in the Red Sea province of Hodeidah. All of these figures come from one side of a war and have not been independently confirmed. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/yemen-forces-claim-to-seize-dhubab-sites-near-bab-al-mandeb-from-houthis) reported the gains as government claims.

The Red Sea now matters more to Gulf oil than it did before the war. [Standard Chartered estimates](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Says-Hormuz-Oil-Flows-Are-Far-From-Normal.html) that Gulf crude and condensate exports excluding Iran have recovered to near pre-war levels, while Hormuz traffic stays well below normal. Data compiled by [investingLive](https://investinglive.com/commodities/dark-transits-and-tanker-relays-oil-producers-workarounds-to-keep-oil-moving-past-hormuz/) put September exports at about 16.5 million barrels a day. Only about 60% of those barrels physically crossed Hormuz. About 23% left from the Gulf of Oman, mostly crude linked to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and loaded near Fujairah. About 17% left from the Red Sea, mainly Saudi crude shipped from Yanbu. Before the war, roughly 17% of exports avoided the strait. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia sold about 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for ship-to-ship loading at Oman's Sohar port in September and October.

Prices show what these alternative routes cost. Brent traded above $102 on Monday, while Abu Dhabi's Murban grade reached $110, [Gulf News reported](https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/oil-prices-split-as-brent-tops-102-murban-hits-110-per-barrel-on-oct-5-2026-1.500698305). Not everyone expects the problem to fade. In an essay [republished by ZeroHedge](https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/five-year-fuel-crisis-why-world-economy-paying-war-it-thinks-ending), former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson argues that the world faces a multi-year fuel crisis, which most commentators still treat as a temporary price spike.

## What this means

The Saudi route that avoids Hormuz depends on safe passage south through Bab el-Mandeb. If government forces hold the coast, the risk to oil loadings at Yanbu falls, and the Murban premium over Brent should narrow as Asian buyers gain access to more secure barrels. Saudi Arabia and the UAE gain most from that. The Houthis lose their main lever against the bypass. Brent near $102 already assumes the bypass keeps working. The market has priced the coastal fighting less fully, because a coast seized in one month can be lost in the next, as it was last month. After the 2019 Abqaiq attack, the price spike faded within about two weeks once flows resumed. Here, though, the higher shipping and insurance costs are structural. The likelier outcome is that the Brent-Murban gap narrows over the coming weeks if the government holds Dhubab and Mocha, while Brent stays near $100 because Hormuz itself remains restricted. The read is wrong if the Houthis retake ground near the strait or hit a tanker leaving Yanbu, which would put a Red Sea premium on top of the Hormuz premium.

## What to watch

- Whether the Houthis attack shipping or Saudi export terminals in the Red Sea in response. That would show whether losing the coast reduced their reach.
- Changes in the share of Gulf crude leaving through Yanbu and Fujairah in October tanker-tracking data, which shows how much producers trust the bypass routes.
- The price gap between Murban and Brent, which measures what Asian buyers pay for Gulf supply security.