# Lula trails Flávio Bolsonaro by about two points heading into Brazil's October 25 runoff

Lula's campaign will target the 21% of voters who abstained, especially those over 70. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is seeking the support of the Centrão, a bloc of centrist parties, and of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.

- Published: 2026-10-07T05:05:29.901Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-07/lula-trails-fl-vio-bolsonaro-by-about-two-points-heading-int
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: world
- Sources: [MercoPress](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/06/lula-targets-non-voters-and-over-70s-to-overturn-the-first-round-result?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss), [InfoMoney](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/flavio-bolsonaro-estou-esperancoso-com-retaguarda-de-liderancas-comigo-como-tarcisio/), [Agência Brasil](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/justica/noticia/2026-10/tse-marca-para-quinta-feira-julgamento-que-pode-definir-eleicao-no-rio)

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will focus his runoff campaign on people who did not vote on Sunday, especially those over 70, and on centrist voters, [MercoPress reported](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/06/lula-targets-non-voters-and-over-70s-to-overturn-the-first-round-result?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss). In the first round, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the vote and Lula won 45.16%, according to [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261005-brazil-presidential-election-runoff-bolsonaro-lula). Abstention reached 21.08%. Voting is optional for Brazilians over 70, so that group is the largest pool of potential votes that a turnout campaign can reach.

Bolsonaro is working to widen his coalition. He told [InfoMoney](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/flavio-bolsonaro-estou-esperancoso-com-retaguarda-de-liderancas-comigo-como-tarcisio/) that he is "hopeful" about support from leaders such as Tarcísio de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo. He said his campaign is in talks with parties of the Centrão, the group of centrist parties whose votes usually decide whether a Brazilian president can pass legislation.

Some state races are also unresolved. [Agência Brasil](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/justica/noticia/2026-10/tse-marca-para-quinta-feira-julgamento-que-pode-definir-eleicao-no-rio), the state news agency, reported that the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will rule on Thursday on whether Anthony Garotinho, a candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro, may withdraw an appeal. The ruling could decide that election.

## What this means

For holders of the real, Brazil's currency, and Brazilian local-currency bonds, the question that matters most is fiscal: whether the next president will have the votes in Congress to pass a credible budget framework. The name of the winner matters less. That gives the Centrão parties leverage over both campaigns. Bolsonaro is negotiating for their support now, and Lula would have to negotiate with them after a win. A Bolsonaro victory would probably be read as better for state-company governance. A Lula victory would probably be read as continuity in social spending. Either way, the fiscal price is set by the parties in Congress. The 2014 runoff between Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves is a useful precedent: currency volatility rose sharply in the final two weeks as polls shifted. The desk's read: the result will depend on turnout among abstainers and older voters, which polls measure poorly. Expect the real and local interest rates to become more volatile over the next two weeks, with markets responding more to signs of Centrão alignment than to headline polling. If Centrão parties formally commit to one side before October 25, the uncertainty premium should shrink quickly whichever candidate they back.

## What to watch

- Formal endorsements from the main Centrão parties. Their choice will shape which candidate can promise a working majority in Congress.
- Polls on turnout among voters over 70. A rise in that group's intention to vote would show whether Lula's strategy can close a roughly two-point gap.
- Each candidate's statements on the fiscal framework. Specific spending rules would move local interest rates more than broad campaign promises.