# Brent settles at $104 as Iran steps up tanker attacks, while Trump rules out Iran strikes before the midterms

President Donald Trump says the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 election, but attacks on tankers and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane pushed oil up 4% on Thursday, and long-term Treasury yields remain near their highest levels since 2002.

- Published: 2026-10-08T05:19:03.136Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-08/pentagon-orders-final-preparations-for-renewed-iran-strikes
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Globes (Hebrew)](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001558825#utm_source=RSS), [Globes (Hebrew) markets](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001558814#utm_source=RSS), [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/08/bitcoin-breaks-below-usd83-000-as-oil-jumps-on-iran-strike-plan-report), [Business Standard](https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/us-prepares-military-for-possible-new-iran-strikes-trump-yet-to-decide-126100800105_1.html), [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/10/01/pentagon-prepares-potential-surge-naval-forces-middle-east/), [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)

Brent crude futures rose 4% on Thursday to settle at $104.28 a barrel, [CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz.html). Two things drove the move: Iran increased its attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Hurricane Isaias threatened US offshore production. CNBC counted nine tankers attacked over the past week. It also reported that oil companies shut in about 500,000 barrels a day, roughly 25% of Gulf of Mexico output, ahead of the storm. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 3.6% to $91.49. [CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/business/oil-diesel-prices-tanker-attacks-hormuz-intl) that the attacks have reduced tanker crossings through the strait to a two-month low.

Prices came off their session highs after President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US would "not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" on November 3. [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-08/trump-says-us-won-t-attack-iran-before-november-midterm-election) that Trump cited "productive discussions" with Tehran and said his main goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Trump's statement answers the timing question that earlier reports had left open. [The Israeli business daily Globes reported](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001558825#utm_source=RSS) on Thursday morning that the Pentagon had told the US military to finish preparing for a renewed large-scale war with Iran. According to [Business Standard's account of the overnight report](https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/us-prepares-military-for-possible-new-iran-strikes-trump-yet-to-decide-126100800105_1.html), US Central Command received the instruction several days ago. The order set no date, and a resumed campaign would include extensive strikes on Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets. US and Israeli sources had said strikes could come before the midterms, and possibly before Israel's election a week earlier. On October 1, [The Washington Post reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/10/01/pentagon-prepares-potential-surge-naval-forces-middle-east/) that the military was planning a possible surge of thousands of naval personnel to the region while Trump considered renewed strikes after the midterms. Trump's pledge covers only the period before the election, so the preparations remain in place for the weeks after it. None of the reports reviewed carried a response from the Iranian government.

The fighting at sea continues regardless of the pledge. On September 9, the US sank five Iranian oil tankers. US Central Command said the strikes answered two ballistic missile attacks by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on a US Navy warship. Iran said it then attacked 10 ships near Hormuz, including two US vessels and eight tankers, [Al Jazeera reported](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/us-destroys-five-iranian-tankers-iran-retaliates-with-attacks-on-jordan-base). Central Command said no US warship was struck. [Reuters, in a report carried by Asharq Al-Awsat](https://english.aawsat.com/world/5316242-iran-and-us-hit-tankers-biggest-wave-attacks-shipping-war-began), called it the biggest wave of attacks on shipping by both sides since the war began. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the time that Iran would "lose tankers" every time it tried to hit US naval ships.

Before Thursday's rally, Brent had risen above $102 in Asian trading, [CoinDesk reported](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/08/bitcoin-breaks-below-usd83-000-as-oil-jumps-on-iran-strike-plan-report), and [Globes put Brent at $102](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001558814#utm_source=RSS), with Asian stocks lower and Wall Street futures flat after Wednesday's losses. Brent closed at $100.87 on October 7, [according to Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil). The [US Energy Information Administration (EIA)](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) said Brent averaged $114 in September after attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries crude around the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday's settlement is close to the EIA's fourth-quarter forecast of $105.

The bond market has been reacting to the same oil prices. CoinDesk reported that the oil move pushed Treasury yields back toward their highest levels since 2002. On October 6 the 10-year yield reached 5.34% and the 30-year yield 5.70%, both the highest since 2002, [according to Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield/news/588457). Higher energy costs add to the inflation that the Federal Reserve is already raising rates to contain, and buyers of long-term debt are demanding higher yields to cover that risk.

## What this means

The chain of effect runs from crude oil to expected inflation, to Federal Reserve policy, to long-term Treasury yields. The investors most exposed are holders of long-dated bonds, airlines, and import-dependent economies such as India, Japan and the euro area. Producers that can ship around Hormuz gain. A war premium was already in prices: Brent near $100 sits below the EIA's $105 fourth-quarter forecast. What is new is that the order includes a timetable linked to the election. Many investors still read military preparation as negotiating leverage. Trump did call off a planned strike in August, [as CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-trump-iran.html), and that history supports their view. But the order to finish preparations narrows the gap between threat and action. The desk's read is that Brent will probably hold above $100 through the November 3 election window and long Treasury yields will stay near this week's highs, because neither side has shown it can lower the risk before the vote. That read assumes no strike decision before the election. A publicly announced US-Iran negotiating track, or a statement from Trump ruling out action before November 3, would prove it wrong, and Brent falling back below October 7's $100.87 close would confirm the premium had faded.

## What to watch

- Tanker attacks and crossings through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran keeps attacking ships at last week's pace and crossings stay at two-month lows, Brent is likely to stay above the EIA's $105 fourth-quarter forecast even though Trump has ruled out strikes before the election.
- Whether the US keeps sinking Iranian tankers after Iranian fire on its warships. Trump's pledge applies to attacks on Iran before November 3. New US strikes on tankers would mean the fighting at sea is continuing without the wider air campaign.
- How long Gulf of Mexico production stays shut in because of Hurricane Isaias. A fast restart of the roughly 500,000 barrels a day would remove the storm's share of Thursday's gain. Lasting damage would push US supply lower at the same time as Gulf shipping is disrupted.
- The US-Iran talks Trump called productive, and the Pentagon's plans for after November 3. A deal would lower the risk built into oil prices and into long-term Treasury yields. If the talks collapse after the election, strikes on Iranian energy targets become possible again.