# Brent holds above $100 after a 4.1% jump as Trump rules out striking Iran before the midterms

The US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz stays in force, and Vitol's chief executive says ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are the main reason prices are not far higher.

- Published: 2026-10-09T05:18:28.882Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-09/brent-holds-above-100-after-a-4-1-jump-as-trump-rules-out-st
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-october-9-crude-oil-dips-1-to-103-as-trump-rules-out-iran-attack-before-midterm-elections-what-are-analysts-saying/articleshow/134804292.cms), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Worlds-Top-Crude-Trader-Isnt-Ruling-Out-200-Oil-Just-Yet.html), [The Nation Thailand](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40072036), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-to-resume-october-fuel-exports-after-a-brief-halt-four-trade-sources-say-4940140)

Brent crude futures [settled $4.08, or 4.1%, higher at $104.28 a barrel on Thursday](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-october-9-crude-oil-dips-1-to-103-as-trump-rules-out-iran-attack-before-midterm-elections-what-are-analysts-saying/articleshow/134804292.cms). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $3.21, or 3.6%, to $91.49. [The Nation Thailand attributed the move](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40072036) to the Middle East war and to concern about hurricanes. In early Asian trading on Friday, Brent fell about 1% to $103 and WTI fell 0.75% to $90.5, after President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

Trump's statement removed one path to escalation for the next four weeks. It did not change the physical supply picture. Trump said the US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz [would remain in "full force"](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/10/08/trump-rules-out-attack-on-iran-before-midterm-elections/), and Iran has not yet answered Washington's counterproposal on reopening the waterway.

Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, [told OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Worlds-Top-Crude-Trader-Isnt-Ruling-Out-200-Oil-Just-Yet.html) that ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are keeping Gulf crude moving, and that without them the market would face a far larger shortfall. He did not rule out $200 oil. At a London industry forum on October 6, [Hardy called $200 a conditional scenario, not a forecast](https://www.roic.ai/news/vitol-warns-middle-east-oil-flows-recover-but-shipping-crisis-deepens-200-barrel-scenario-looms-10-06-2026). He said Middle East exports had recovered to about 14 million barrels a day, but that the relay of tankers needed for the workaround had caused a vessel shortage and a steep rise in freight costs.

Refined products are tighter still. Chinese refiners [suspended October fuel exports](https://www.gulf-times.com/article/734613/business/chinese-refiners-said-to-suspend-october-fuel-exports-to-bolster-stocks) to protect domestic stocks. Four trade sources now say [Beijing will let October exports resume after a brief halt](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-to-resume-october-fuel-exports-after-a-brief-halt-four-trade-sources-say-4940140). Since March, China has issued its gasoline, diesel and jet fuel export permits one month at a time, so buyers in Asia cannot plan beyond the current month.

For central banks, the price of oil is a real cost that monetary policy cannot change. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of India are each tightening in response to energy-driven inflation. That tightening raises borrowing costs for the rest of the economy without adding a single barrel of supply.

## What this means

Trump's pledge removes the risk of a US strike until November 3, but the blockade and the tanker relay still set the supply. Over the next month, the risk premium is likelier to come from freight rates, vessel availability and refinery export permits than from new strike threats. Fuel importers with weak currencies, such as India, are most exposed, along with airlines and refiners that depend on Gulf crude. Producers outside the Gulf and tanker owners gain. Markets may be reading the midterm pledge as de-escalation, but it leaves the blockade unchanged. In the 1980s Tanker War, Gulf exports continued under escort, and shipping and insurance costs absorbed most of the risk. The current workaround follows the same pattern. The desk's read is that Brent will stay near current levels rather than fall back toward pre-war prices over the coming weeks, because Hormuz throughput, not the threat of a strike, now sets the price. A signed version of Iran's seven-day plan that reopens the strait would prove this read wrong.

## What to watch

- Iran's formal reply to the US response on its seven-day Hormuz plan. A reply that sets a date for reopening would cut the logistics premium faster than any statement from Washington.
- Whether Beijing issues November fuel export permits on schedule. A second halt would tighten diesel and jet fuel supply across Asia, separately from crude.
- Tanker freight rates for the Gulf of Oman transfer route. Rising rates would show that the workaround is reaching its capacity limit.