# Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's runoff polls as household consumption heads for its weakest growth since the pandemic

Datafolha shows the senator ahead 52% to 48% before the October 25 vote, after the Ibovespa rose 7.7% to above 200,000 points following the first round.

- Published: 2026-10-12T05:11:07.327Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-12/fl-vio-bolsonaro-leads-lula-in-brazil-s-runoff-polls-as-hous
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: world
- Sources: [The Hindu](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/lula-stages-mass-rally-ahead-of-brazils-presidential-run-off/article71573645.ece), [Agência Brasil](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/flavio-passa-domingo-reunido-com-prefeitos-e-vereadores-de-sao-paulo), [InfoMoney](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/flavio-pede-investigacao-contra-diretor-geral-da-pf-por-suposto-favorecimento-a-lula/), [Folha de S.Paulo](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2026/10/consumo-deixa-de-ser-motor-do-pib-e-deve-ter-menor-crescimento-desde-pandemia.shtml)

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva held a [mass rally on Sunday](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/lula-stages-mass-rally-ahead-of-brazils-presidential-run-off/article71573645.ece) as polls showed Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, favored to win the October 25 runoff. Datafolha's first runoff poll [shows Flávio ahead 52% to 48%](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-datafolha-runoff-poll-flavio-lula-2026/), and an Ipespe poll gives him 52.7%. In the first round on October 4, he won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%.

Flávio spent Sunday [meeting mayors and city councillors](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/flavio-passa-domingo-reunido-com-prefeitos-e-vereadores-de-sao-paulo) from greater São Paulo, according to state news agency Agência Brasil. His campaign also filed a criminal complaint with the electoral courts. It accuses Andrei Rodrigues, director-general of the Federal Police, of [using the force to influence the first round](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/flavio-pede-investigacao-contra-diretor-geral-da-pf-por-suposto-favorecimento-a-lula/) in Lula's favor, InfoMoney reported. The government has not accepted that accusation.

Markets have already priced in a Flávio victory. After the first round, the Ibovespa, Brazil's benchmark stock index, [rose 7.7% to 206,911.89](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-stocks-real-first-round-2026/), above the 200,000-point mark, and the real gained about 4% against the dollar. Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi both gave Flávio an [88% chance of winning](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/) as of October 11.

The next government will inherit a slowing economy. Economists told Folha de S.Paulo that household consumption, the main source of Brazilian growth in recent years, is [losing momentum and will grow at its slowest pace since the pandemic](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2026/10/consumo-deixa-de-ser-motor-do-pib-e-deve-ter-menor-crescimento-desde-pandemia.shtml) this year and next. They expect investment and exports to carry more of the load. From a sound-money view, growth driven by consumption, which rested on transfers and credit, is reaching its limit as high interest rates make borrowing more expensive.

## What this means

When markets assign one candidate an 88% chance of winning, most of the expected gain from that outcome is already reflected in prices, and the larger risk is a surprise. The Brazilian real and local-currency bonds now depend more on whether the next government can pass a credible fiscal rule through a divided Congress than on who actually wins. The precedent is Argentina's 2023 election, when markets rallied on a promise of fiscal consolidation, and the gains lasted only as long as the government kept delivering spending cuts. If Flávio wins, the more likely outcome is that the rally fades within months unless his team sends Congress concrete spending legislation early in the term. If Lula wins, expect a sharp fall in the real and a rise in local yields within days. The decisive factor is the arithmetic in Congress after the vote, not the campaign itself.

## What to watch

- Whether Flávio names an economic team and announces fiscal measures before the vote. Named officials and specific figures would tell markets whether his consolidation promise has substance.
- New Datafolha and Quaest polls this week. A narrowing lead would restore the risk that markets have already priced out.
- How the electoral courts handle the complaint against the Federal Police chief. A contested process could raise doubts about whether the losing side will accept the result.