# Oil freight costs have risen eight- to tenfold since the US-Iran war began, and a South Korean ship completes an Arctic round trip to Europe

Shipping costs for finished goods are up about 73%, and the PanStar Acro returned to Busan after 50 days on a route along Russia's Arctic coast that cuts the distance to Rotterdam by about a third.

- Published: 2026-10-12T05:11:07.327Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-12/oil-freight-costs-have-risen-eight-to-tenfold-since-the-us-i
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Mint](https://www.livemint.com/economy/oil-crisis-shipping-crisis-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war-us-iran-conflict-crude-oil-prices-oil-tankers-11791718565378.html), [Kommersant](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9024314)

Since the US-Iran war began, the cost of shipping oil has risen eight to ten times, the cost of shipping finished goods by about 73% and the cost of shipping bulk commodities by about 49%, [India's Mint reported](https://www.livemint.com/economy/oil-crisis-shipping-crisis-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war-us-iran-conflict-crude-oil-prices-oil-tankers-11791718565378.html). Shipowners are earning higher margins and ordering new ships, while taking on more risk. Importers pay the extra freight, and it reaches consumers through higher prices for fuel and goods.

Shippers are also testing other routes. The South Korean container ship PanStar Acro completed South Korea's first commercial round trip to Europe through the Arctic on October 11, [Russian business daily Kommersant reported](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9024314), citing Reuters. It left Busan on August 22 and returned 50 days later. The Busan-Rotterdam passage by the northern route covers about [13,000 kilometers, compared with 20,000 kilometers](https://m.theinvestor.co.kr/article/10856572) through the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, and can save about 10 days. The voyage, which called at ports in Britain, the Netherlands and Poland, was a government-backed trial to measure costs, cargo demand and geopolitical risk.

The route runs along Russia's Arctic coast, and Moscow administers navigation on it. Reuters described the trial as going ahead [despite Western concerns](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/08/22/south-korea-ship-to-test-arctic-commercial-route-amid-western-concerns). South Korea joined Western sanctions on Russia, but higher costs in the Gulf and the Red Sea have made a Russian-administered passage worth testing for a major Asian exporter.

## What this means

Freight costs amount to a direct tax on trade between Asia and Europe. They pass through into import prices and keep goods inflation higher even when central banks hold interest rates high. Tanker owners and shipbuilders gain, while importers of oil and goods in South Asia and Europe pay more. The northern route can carry only part of this traffic, because it is open for only part of the year and requires ice-class ships. Its importance is political. Each Asian trial makes Russia's control of an alternative trade route more valuable and gives Moscow leverage over the countries that sanction it. That fits the desk's thesis that Russia holds dominant power across its region. The precedent is the 2021 Suez Canal blockage, after which shippers discussed alternatives but returned to the canal once it reopened. The more likely outcome is that freight rates stay high for months while the Gulf conflict continues, and that more Asian trial voyages on the northern route are announced for next summer. This forecast would be proven wrong by a lasting US-Iran settlement that restores normal Gulf traffic and lowers tanker rates.

## What to watch

- Whether Seoul or Busan port operators announce regular sailings on the Arctic route for next year. Regular sailings would turn a trial into a trade lane that depends on Moscow's permission.
- Tanker freight and war-risk insurance rates for Gulf loadings. A sustained decline would be the clearest sign that markets expect the conflict to end.
- Orders for new tankers and ice-class container ships. A rise in orders would show that owners expect high freight rates to persist for years.