# Washington threatens to block arms for Ukraine unless Kyiv stops striking Russian refineries

Zelensky says Ukraine will stop only if Russia stops hitting Ukrainian energy sites, and the Kremlin says he lacks the will to settle after Trump said Ukraine needs a new president.

- Published: 2026-10-12T05:11:07.327Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-12/washington-threatens-to-block-arms-for-ukraine-unless-kyiv-s
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: geopolitics
- Sources: [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/68fd8c4f-6f34-4f6e-a52c-76f635164031?syn-25a6b1a6=1), [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/11/world/europe/trump-zelensky-diesel-energy-russia-.html), [TASS](https://tass.com/world/2200637), [Kommersant](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9024298)

US officials are lobbying European capitals and Kyiv after President Trump's diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They have threatened to block arms for Ukraine unless it stops attacking Russian oil refineries, [the Financial Times reported](https://www.ft.com/content/68fd8c4f-6f34-4f6e-a52c-76f635164031?syn-25a6b1a6=1). This is the most direct use of US military supply as leverage over Ukraine's own strikes since the war began.

President Trump [publicly criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/11/world/europe/trump-zelensky-diesel-energy-russia-.html) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for continuing the strikes and called for Ukraine to replace him. According to The New York Times, Zelensky answered that Ukraine would stop if Russia stopped too. Russian state agency TASS, citing Axios, reported that Trump is ["fuming"](https://tass.com/world/2200637) and believes the strikes are pushing up US gasoline prices. US fuel prices are a political problem for the White House weeks before the midterm elections.

Russia's own conduct has complicated its position in the dispute. Hours after Trump announced the energy ceasefire, Russian forces struck a power plant in Kharkiv and a power station in Kyiv, causing outages in several districts, [the Kyiv Independent reported](https://kyivindependent.com/russia-struck-kharkivs-power-plant-shortly-after-trump-announced-energy-ceasefire/). Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries appeared to pause overnight, [according to the Moscow Times](https://themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/12/ukrainian-refinery-strikes-pause-after-trump-ceasefire-announcement-2-a93944), suggesting Kyiv held off while Moscow's strikes continued. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to formally confirm the ceasefire on Monday, saying only that "contacts are ongoing."

Moscow used the dispute to repeat its own position. Peskov, asked about Trump's remark that Ukraine needs a new president, said Zelensky [does not show the political will needed](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9024298) to settle the conflict, Russian business daily Kommersant reported.

Each side's account serves its interests. Kyiv treats refinery strikes as its main way to cut the oil revenue that funds Russia's war, and it presents a halt as acceptable only if Russia also stops striking Ukraine's power grid. Moscow benefits when the dispute is framed as a matter of Zelensky's personal will rather than of terms, even as its own forces continue striking Ukrainian energy facilities. Washington presents the strikes as a cause of high fuel prices for American consumers.

## What this means

The United States supplies intelligence and weapon systems that Europe can pay for but cannot quickly replace. That gives Washington control over how far Kyiv can carry its deep-strike campaign. Kyiv wants to keep its only effective tool against Russian oil revenue. Moscow wants that tool removed without giving up its own strikes on Ukraine's power grid. Trump wants lower fuel prices before the midterm elections. There is a close precedent. In March 2025, Washington briefly paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv, and within about a week Ukraine accepted a US ceasefire proposal in Jeddah. The more likely outcome is that Ukraine sharply cuts back refinery strikes within weeks while publicly tying that halt to Russian restraint, and that Russian refined-fuel exports recover in the following months. This forecast depends on Washington following through on its threat. It would be proven wrong if European governments offer replacement intelligence and arms commitments at this week's talks and Ukraine keeps striking Russian refineries anyway.

## What to watch

- Whether Washington actually delays any scheduled arms delivery or intelligence feed. A delay would turn the threat into policy, and Kyiv has given way to similar pressure before.
- The outcome of this week's European talks on pressuring Russia. Any offer to replace US support would reduce Washington's leverage over Kyiv.
- Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid as winter approaches. Continued strikes would let Kyiv argue that the truce applies to only one side.