# Lula rallies in São Paulo and Rio as polls show Flávio Bolsonaro leading Brazil's October 25 runoff

Datafolha's first runoff poll gives the senator 52% of valid votes to Lula's 48%, and the real gained about 4% in the week after the first round as markets priced a more conservative Congress.

- Published: 2026-10-13T05:12:31.832Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-13/lula-rallies-in-s-o-paulo-and-rio-as-polls-show-fl-vio-bolso
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: world
- Sources: [MercoPress](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/12/lula-takes-to-the-streets-of-s-o-paulo-to-close-the-gap-two-weeks-before-the-runoff?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss), [Agência Brasil](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/milhares-de-pessoas-lotam-orla-de-copacabana-em-apoio-lula), [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-datafolha-runoff-poll-flavio-lula-2026/)

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led a [large rally on São Paulo's Avenida Paulista](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/12/lula-takes-to-the-streets-of-s-o-paulo-to-close-the-gap-two-weeks-before-the-runoff?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss) on Sunday to relaunch his campaign two weeks before the October 25 runoff, in which he trails Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. "This country cannot lose its democracy," Lula told the crowd, according to MercoPress. On Monday, a national holiday, [thousands of supporters filled the Copacabana seafront in Rio de Janeiro](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/milhares-de-pessoas-lotam-orla-de-copacabana-em-apoio-lula) for an event in support of democracy and Lula's reelection, the state news agency Agência Brasil reported.

Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round with [47.03% to Lula's 45.16%](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/). Datafolha's first runoff poll gives him [52% of valid votes against 48% for Lula](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-datafolha-runoff-poll-flavio-lula-2026/), and an Ipespe poll puts him at [52.7% against 47.3%](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-ipespe-poll-flavio-lula-runoff-2026/). Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi gave him about an 87% chance of winning as of Monday morning in New York.

Currency traders have already acted on the result. The dollar [fell more than 4% against the real on October 5](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/), the day after the first round, as markets priced a stronger conservative presence in Congress. Lula's campaign frames the vote as a defense of democratic institutions. Bolsonaro's camp frames it as a vote on spending and the state's role in the economy.

## What this means

The real and Brazilian local-currency bonds have already priced in a Bolsonaro win and a more conservative Congress. The remaining risk is therefore asymmetric: a Lula comeback would undo much of the post-first-round rally in the real and push long-term local yields higher, while a Bolsonaro win mostly confirms what is already priced. For investors, Congress matters more than the president, because Brazil's spending rules pass through the legislature. The 2018 precedent is relevant. The real rallied before Jair Bolsonaro's runoff win, then traded sideways for months as pension reform moved slowly through Congress. The likelier outcome is a Flávio Bolsonaro victory followed by weeks in which the real depends on the fiscal team he names, not on the election result itself. Two concrete signals would decide whether the post-election period goes well for the currency: an economy minister with market credibility, and early congressional votes on spending limits. A poll swing that brings Lula within the margin of error in the final week would reverse part of the currency move before the vote.

## What to watch

- Datafolha and Quaest polls in the final week: a narrowing to within the margin of error would reprice the real before October 25.
- The name of Flávio Bolsonaro's intended economy minister: a figure with fiscal credibility would support the real after the vote, and a political appointee would not.