# WTI crude jumps 3% on a large US inventory draw while Brent stalls as Washington weighs easing Russian tanker sanctions Brent settled at $105.92 even after US Central Command confirmed that an Iranian projectile struck a container ship that sank in the Strait of Hormuz this week. - Published: 2026-10-16T05:18:24.267Z - Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-16/wti-crude-jumps-3-on-a-large-us-inventory-draw-while-brent-s - Publisher: Polylog (Global desk) - Section: markets - Sources: [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/WTI-Outpaces-Brent-as-US-Crude-Draw-Ignites-Fresh-Buying.html), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Wont-Add-New-Supply.html), [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/2037502/trump-banking-on-swift-end-of-iran-war-to-bring-down-fuel-prices), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/mideast-war-alters-global-bunker-buying-patterns-industry-execs-say-4953018) The two main crude benchmarks moved in different directions on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose 3% to settle at $97.97 a barrel, while Brent for December [slipped 0.1% to $105.92](https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_prices_diverge_as_supply_risks_mount-15-oct-2026-184860-article/). The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that national crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels last week, the largest draw since February. Much of the decline came from production shut in after a hurricane crossed the US Gulf Coast, so part of the draw will reverse when output returns. Brent had reasons to rise and did not. The week brought [tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/WTI-Outpaces-Brent-as-US-Crude-Draw-Ignites-Fresh-Buying.html), and US Central Command confirmed that a container ship that sank in the strait had been struck by an Iranian projectile. Prices were held back by two offsetting forces. Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) pledged to complete a 100-million-barrel release begun in March. Washington is also considering easing restrictions on Russian crude and on the tankers that carry it, which [weighed on the international benchmark](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Wont-Add-New-Supply.html). Standard Chartered disputes the supply arithmetic behind that relief. The bank argues that President Donald Trump's arrangement on Russian diesel will not add new supply to the world market. It would move existing barrels through different channels. The Russian exile station Echo, citing Axios, reported that Trump [reached a diesel supply deal with Vladimir Putin](https://echofm.online/news/tramp-zaklyuchil-sdelku-s-putinym-o-postavkah-dizelnogo-topliva-posle-togo-kak-zelenskij-proignoriroval-ego-prosby-ostanovit-udary-po-rossijskim-npz-axios) after Ukraine ignored his requests to stop striking Russian refineries. The White House is counting on a quick end to the war. Pakistan's Dawn reported that Trump again [predicted a swift end to the conflict with Iran](https://www.dawn.com/news/2037502/trump-banking-on-swift-end-of-iran-war-to-bring-down-fuel-prices) as a way to lower fuel prices. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the US blockade and said military force would not compel Tehran to submit. CNN reported that Washington is weighing use of the GBU-43 (the "Mother of All Bombs") against Iranian energy sites. Shipping has already adjusted to the war. Industry executives told Reuters that it has [changed where vessels buy fuel](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/mideast-war-alters-global-bunker-buying-patterns-industry-execs-say-4953018), which adds cost to every voyage that avoids the Gulf. ## What this means The narrowing gap between Brent and WTI shows two separate forces. The US domestic draw is local and partly temporary, while Brent is being capped by expected policy rather than by any new supply. Washington wants lower pump prices before the midterm elections, and it is willing to accept Russian barrels to get them. That gives Moscow back market access step by step and reduces the deterrent value of US sanctions. If Standard Chartered is right that the diesel arrangement only reroutes barrels, the relief in Brent reflects positioning, not physical supply, and it can reverse with the next attack in the Gulf. The precedent is the 2022 price cap on Russian oil imposed by the Group of Seven (G7). Russian crude kept flowing through a fleet of tankers outside Western insurance, and buyers in India and China absorbed it. Supply was redistributed, and the market as a whole did not gain barrels. The likelier outcome over the coming weeks is that Brent stays above $100 while Hormuz traffic remains disrupted, with brief dips each time Washington signals sanctions relief. That depends on Iran continuing to target shipping. It would be proved wrong by a negotiated reopening of the strait or a ceasefire that lets tankers move normally. ## What to watch - Whether the US Treasury publishes formal relief for tankers carrying Russian oil. A written license would turn a market expectation into a supply channel, and silence would leave Brent exposed to the next Gulf incident. - Shipping traffic counts through the Strait of Hormuz. A recovery would remove the main support under Brent, and further sinkings would reinforce it. - Next week's EIA inventory report. A rebuild after the hurricane would show the WTI jump was a weather effect rather than a change in demand.