# Caputo says Argentina has a dollar surplus as unemployment claims rise nearly 30%

Retail prices rose 1.9% in September and wholesale prices 3.2%, and analysts warn that Brent crude near $110 will force further fuel price increases.

- Published: 2026-10-18T05:07:38.100Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-18/caputo-says-argentina-has-a-dollar-surplus-as-unemployment-c
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Ámbito](https://www.ambito.com/economia/luis-caputo-busco-llevar-calma-los-mercados-argentina-tiene-un-excedente-dolares-n6334966), [Clarín](https://www.clarin.com/economia/crecio-30-cantidad-empleados-registrados-pidio-seguro-desempleo-ultimo-ano_0_KJwevtHyrV.html), [Clarín](https://www.clarin.com/economia/volvio-subir-petroleo-mercado-espera-nafta-cara-complica-desaceleracion-inflacion_0_G2b1MFfeMa.html), [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2026/oct/18/4000-people-minding-our-own-business-four-decades-on-falklands-again-face-a-hostile-argentina)

Luis Caputo, Argentina's economy minister, tried to reassure investors at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings. He said that ["Argentina has a surplus of dollars"](https://www.ambito.com/economia/luis-caputo-busco-llevar-calma-los-mercados-argentina-tiene-un-excedente-dolares-n6334966) and pointed to stronger reserves at the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). Ámbito listed inconsistencies in what he told the international audience. Earlier this year, gross reserves [passed $40 billion partly through a repurchase agreement with international banks](https://www.iprofesional.com/economia/430668-reservas-del-banco-central-argentina-superaron-40000-millones-dolares-nivel-mas-alto-en-dos-anos-y-medio). Borrowed dollars of that kind are not a surplus.

The labor market is weakening. The number of registered workers claiming unemployment insurance [rose almost 30%](https://www.clarin.com/economia/crecio-30-cantidad-empleados-registrados-pidio-seguro-desempleo-ultimo-ano_0_KJwevtHyrV.html) in the year to September, to 112,056, Clarín reported. Over the past two years and nine months, 473,186 people have drawn the benefit.

Rising oil prices are now adding to inflation pressure and working against disinflation. Retail prices [rose 1.9% in September and wholesale prices 3.2%](https://www.clarin.com/economia/volvio-subir-petroleo-mercado-espera-nafta-cara-complica-desaceleracion-inflacion_0_G2b1MFfeMa.html). With Brent close to $110, analysts quoted by Clarín expect further gradual increases in gasoline and diesel prices.

Politics is getting harder for the government. The Guardian reported that President Javier Milei, [facing a slump in the polls](https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2026/oct/18/4000-people-minding-our-own-business-four-decades-on-falklands-again-face-a-hostile-argentina), has taken economic measures against the Falkland Islands' oil industry and suggested its fisheries could be next. Argentina calls the islands the Malvinas and claims them, and Britain administers them. The Peronist opposition held [rival rallies on Saturday](https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/peronism-will-return-to-power-in-argentina-declares-kicillof-at-loyalty-day-rally.phtml), where Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof declared that Peronism will return to power.

## What this means

Wholesale prices running well above retail prices means costs are building up that companies have not yet passed on to consumers. Higher fuel prices will add to that pressure. The government's disinflation depends on a stable peso and on reserves partly built with borrowed money, which leaves it exposed to a fall in foreign lending or a jump in import costs. Holders of peso debt and Argentine dollar bonds are exposed through the exchange rate and through the 2027 election. The precedent is 2018. Under President Mauricio Macri, foreign lending stopped suddenly and Argentina needed a record IMF loan to avoid a currency crisis. The desk's read is that monthly retail inflation will drift higher over the next few months as wholesale and fuel costs pass through, and that the government will slow the pace of fuel increases to protect its polling. This depends on Brent staying near current levels. The read would be wrong if October wholesale prices rise less than retail prices, which would show September was a one-month spike.

## What to watch

- October's wholesale price index. Another reading above retail inflation would confirm that cost pressure is still building.
- Whether the BCRA keeps buying dollars in the market or relies on new repurchase financing. Market purchases would support Caputo's surplus claim, while new financing would weaken it.
- Further Argentine measures against Falklands oil or fishing companies. Escalation would show the government using sovereignty issues to offset weak polls.