# Trump waives Graham Act sanctions on Russian energy, and Brent falls toward $108

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the president will take up to 60 days to weigh what the sanctions cost the world economy, a review that runs past the November 3 midterm elections.

- Published: 2026-10-19T05:11:01.095Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-19/trump-waives-graham-act-sanctions-on-russian-energy-and-bren
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [The Nation Thailand](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40072461), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-defends-russian-sanctions-relief-lashes-out-at-zelenskyy), [Investing.com (Reuters)](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/rubio-says-trump-to-take-up-to-60-days-to-weigh-russia-sanctions-4955750)

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday that [waives key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act](https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/822225). He signed that law on September 18. It gives the White House the power to put [tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/artc-trump-hosts-zelenskyy-in-dc-as-senate-advances-russia-iran-sanctions-bill), and it also targets Russia's banks, its energy sector and its "shadow fleet" of tankers. Brent crude [fell 1.3% in early trade on Monday](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40072461). Reuters data carried by The Edge put the drop at $1.94, or 1.77%, to [$107.92 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $100.58](https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/822225).

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take [up to 60 days to assess the economic impact](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/rubio-says-trump-to-take-up-to-60-days-to-weigh-russia-sanctions-4955750) of the sanctions and tariffs. The order extends a deal Trump announced on October 9 after a call with Vladimir Putin, Russia's president. Under that deal, Russia will supply [more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November, then one million tons, and three million more depending on the condition of Russian refineries](https://www.news4jax.com/business/2026/10/09/trump-says-us-to-get-diesel-from-russia-relaxing-pressure-on-moscow-to-ease-prices-before-midterms/). The Treasury issued a waiver for Russian-origin diesel that runs until April 7, 2027. On the day of that announcement, US diesel averaged [$6.28 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/09/nation/trump-russia-diesel-deal/).

On Sunday, Trump defended the relief and [accused Volodymyr Zelensky of not wanting to end the war](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-defends-russian-sanctions-relief-lashes-out-at-zelenskyy), as the Ukrainian president held calls with US envoys. Some members of Congress oppose the move. A bipartisan group of House members, including Marcy Kaptur, Brian Fitzpatrick and Joe Wilson, had [urged Trump to enforce the Graham Act rather than ease sanctions](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/30/7246606/).

The size of the price move shows how traders are reading the news. Brent fell by less than 2% and stayed above $100, which suggests traders see the extra Russian diesel as only a marginal addition to supply rather than a fix for the disruption in the Gulf that put a risk premium into crude prices. Diesel at $6.28 reflects real scarcity, driven by lost Gulf supply and record freight costs. Washington has answered that price with supply diplomacy timed to the election calendar, not with any measure aimed at the disruption that caused it.

## What this means

The waiver works through two channels. It narrows the discount on Russian barrels, because buyers in India, Turkey and China no longer face the threat of a US tariff, and that raises what Moscow earns per barrel. It also slightly lowers the margins of refiners that make diesel in the Atlantic Basin. Russia's budget and Asian refiners that buy Russian oil gain. Kyiv loses leverage, and so does any Gulf or US exporter that sells diesel into a tight market. The market had already priced the October 9 diesel deal. The new information is that the White House will set aside a sanctions law it signed four weeks ago, telling every buyer of Russian oil that the 100% tariff can be negotiated. The common view is that this is a short pre-election gesture. That view misses the timing: the 60-day review ends in mid-December, after the midterms and inside the winter season of peak heating-oil demand. The precedents point the same way. In 2022, Washington released 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before the midterms, and it later licensed Chevron to pump in Venezuela when fuel prices strained domestic politics. Both measures lasted much longer than first advertised. The likelier outcome is that the review ends with the waiver extended in some form, provided Brent stays above $100 while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. The desk's read is wrong if Hormuz reopens and crude falls far enough to give Washington room to reimpose the tariffs, or if Congress passes a measure that blocks the waiver.

## What to watch

- Whether India's and Turkey's refiners raise their purchases of Russian crude in November loadings. A rise would show that buyers treat the tariff threat as suspended rather than only delayed.
- Whether Congress moves to block or limit the waiver. A vote would test whether the sanctions law still binds the president or has become a bargaining tool he controls alone.
- Whether Russia delivers the 500,000 tons of diesel promised for November. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Baltic terminals could make that volume impossible to ship.