# Brent holds above $110 as Hormuz stays closed and the White House rules out an Iran strike before November 3

The Financial Times reported that Israel planned strikes on Iranian power plants about ten days ago and that President Donald Trump refused, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has now arrived in Israel unannounced to discuss the war.

- Published: 2026-10-21T05:06:44.357Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-21/brent-holds-above-110-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-the-white-h
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-october-21-crude-oil-crosses-110-amid-middle-east-supply-concerns-what-lies-ahead/articleshow/135079942.cms), [Ynet (Hebrew)](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hk65pnhhfg), [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/2038660/hegseth-discusses-iran-with-netanyahu-in-unannounced-visit), [Globes (Hebrew)](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001560257#utm_source=RSS)

Brent crude futures rose more than $1 in Asian trading on Wednesday to about $110 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained more than $1 to about $99, [the Economic Times reported](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-october-21-crude-oil-crosses-110-amid-middle-east-supply-concerns-what-lies-ahead/articleshow/135079942.cms). Market data put Brent at [$110.37](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil) after it fell 0.24% to $109.29 on Tuesday.

The physical market, not sentiment, supports the price. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted. IMF PortWatch recorded only four vessel transits on October 18, according to [a shipping tracker run by United Against Nuclear Iran](https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/analysis/iran-shipping-update-october-20-2026), an advocacy group that opposes the Iranian government. The tracker says the United States reimposed its maritime blockade of Iranian shipping on July 14 and had redirected 138 commercial vessels by October 17. US-escorted transits averaged about 28 a day over the October 15 to 17 period. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said tankers using what it called illegal crossing points hit mines south of the strait, [Al Arabiya reported](https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/10/20/iran-says-supertanker-violating-regulations-hits-mine-south-of-strait-of-hormuz). US Central Command (CENTCOM) called the claims false. Both sides have a reason to shape this account: Tehran wants shippers to see the US-escorted route as unsafe, and Washington wants them to see it as working.

Politics adds to the risk premium. Israel planned to strike Iran about a week and a half ago, including power stations and other civilian infrastructure, but Trump refused to act before the US midterm elections, [Ynet reported, citing the Financial Times](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hk65pnhhfg). Ynet quoted the White House: "We will not attack before November 3." On October 13, [Axios reported](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/13/netanyahu-trump-iran-war-elections) that Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had discussed a joint operation against Iranian military and nuclear targets, and noted that Israel votes on October 27, a week before the US midterms.

Hegseth arrived in Israel without prior announcement and discussed the Iran war with Netanyahu, a spokesperson for the prime minister confirmed, [Dawn reported](https://www.dawn.com/news/2038660/hegseth-discusses-iran-with-netanyahu-in-unannounced-visit). The Israeli business daily [Globes reported](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001560257#utm_source=RSS) that Hezbollah has raised its alert level in recent days because Israel may escalate. Globes also cited an Iraqi government official who told Al Jazeera that Iraq's prime minister had ordered several border crossings with Iran to close gradually over the coming days. Iraq last closed three crossings in September, after drones launched from its border province of Missan struck a Saudi pipeline, [according to Shafaq News](https://shafaq.com/en/society/Iraq-begins-phased-reopening-of-Iran-border-crossings).

## What this means

The oil price is tracking supply conditions, not strike headlines. The White House pledge removes a US strike from the calendar for about two weeks, but it does not reopen Hormuz, and the blockade keeps Iranian tankers stranded at anchor. Asian importers such as India, Japan, South Korea and Thailand carry the most exposure through their import bills and currencies. Central banks also face a fresh energy price shock while US 10-year yields sit above 5%. The consensus reads the pledge as de-escalation, but it has an end date. Three dates fall within seven days: Israel's election on October 27, the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 and the US midterms on November 3. If Hezbollah raises its alert and Iraq closes crossings that serve as Iran's trade outlet, both sides are preparing for what happens after the vote. A well-known precedent is January 1991, when crude fell by about a third on the day the US air campaign against Iraq began, because supply fears had already peaked. No comparable release of tension is likely today, because the supply itself remains impaired. The desk's read is that Brent stays above $100 through the midterm window, and that the risk of a renewed strike rises in the weeks after November 3. That read would prove wrong if daily Hormuz transits rise steadily, or if Washington and Tehran reopen talks that ease the blockade.

## What to watch

- Daily vessel counts through the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained rise would show that actual supply, not only sentiment, is improving.
- The coalition that forms after Israel's October 27 election. A government that campaigns on striking Iran makes a post-midterm operation more likely.
- Whether Iraq actually closes its crossings with Iran. That would cut one of Tehran's remaining overland trade routes and raise the pressure on it to respond.