# US and Israel have plans for a short strike campaign on Iran after the November 3 midterms, The New York Times reports

President Donald Trump says no talks with Tehran are under way, and US forces are reportedly moving personnel out of regional bases, as they did before the February attack.

- Published: 2026-10-22T05:18:53.241Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-22/us-and-israel-have-plans-for-a-short-strike-campaign-on-iran
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: geopolitics
- Sources: [Kommersant](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9044423), [TASS](https://tass.com/world/2205931), [RT](https://rt-english.com/news/647505-us-relocating-troops-diplomats/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS), [BBC News Hindi](https://www.bbc.com/hindi/articles/c6wyd5p05kj1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss)

The United States and Israel have drawn up plans to resume strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3. Russia's [Kommersant](https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9044423) summarized the New York Times report, which cites unnamed sources. According to [Israeli](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-and-israel-said-to-draft-plans-for-resumed-strikes-on-iran-after-midterm-elections/) and [Arabic-language](https://amp.skynewsarabia.com/world/1899783-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA) accounts of the report, the planned operation would be short and intensive. Its targets would include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile and drone stocks. Some officials said refineries would be spared to keep gasoline prices down. Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. The two militaries have been rehearsing strike routes over Iraq.

The timing depends on logistics. The [Jerusalem Post's account of the report](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-912476) says the US force, which includes three aircraft carriers, will not be fully in place until early November, when nights over Iran also get longer. Trump has put off renewed strikes several times, including an operation planned earlier this month. He has not approved a new offensive.

In public, Trump said the United States is [not currently negotiating with Iran](https://tass.com/world/2205931). He also predicted changes in the situation "fairly soon," Russia's state agency TASS reported. [RT](https://rt-english.com/news/647505-us-relocating-troops-diplomats/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS), citing NBC, reported that the US is moving troops and diplomats out of Middle East bases while Trump weighs new strikes. RT noted that a similar movement came before the first US-Israeli attack on Iran in February. Russian state outlets are giving the planning reports prominent coverage. Moscow benefits from higher oil prices and from US military attention staying in the Gulf, so their emphasis is itself information.

Iran's leadership has not fully stabilized since that war. [BBC News Hindi](https://www.bbc.com/hindi/articles/c6wyd5p05kj1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss) notes that seven months after the killing of Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic's second supreme leader, his political will has still not been published. The BBC asks whether a will exists or has been destroyed. Iran has warned, according to the reports, that any retaliation could reach Saudi refineries, data centres and undersea internet cables.

## What this means

US policy is trying to do two things at once: keep gasoline prices down before the midterms and keep a credible threat against Tehran. That explains why the reported plan spares refineries and waits until after the vote. Oil, Gulf equities, shipping insurers and the data and cable operators Iran has named are exposed. Tehran's leverage is to threaten third-party infrastructure, because it cannot match the US force. A leaked, dated plan is partly coercive signaling, so the market is pricing the possibility of strikes, not their certainty. The precedent is the run-up to the June 2025 strikes, when planning leaks and staff drawdowns came before action within weeks. The likelier outcome is limited strikes in the first half of November if the carrier groups are in place and no negotiating channel opens. A public meeting between US and Iranian envoys, or Trump again postponing after the midterms, would show the plan was mainly leverage.

## What to watch

- Whether the third carrier group and the extra Marine units reach the region by early November. Their arrival is the logistical condition the reported plan depends on.
- Statements from Tehran or Omani and Qatari intermediaries about reopening talks. A new channel would reduce the near-term strike risk.
- Whether more embassies or US bases in the Gulf order departures. That would show Washington expects retaliation across the region, not only inside Iran.