# Indonesia Prepares for Drought as United Nations Agencies Warn of a Strong El Niño

Indonesia's disaster agency says El Niño may delay the rainy season in the world's largest palm-oil producer, and United Nations food agencies are seeking money to protect 8.8 million people in 22 countries.

- Published: 2026-10-23T05:16:29.344Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-23/indonesia-prepares-for-drought-as-united-nations-agencies-wa
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: world
- Sources: [Antara](https://en.antaranews.com/news/437403/indonesia-prepares-for-drought-as-el-niodelays-rainy-season), [Africanews](http://www.africanews.com/2026/10/22/un-agencies-appeal-for-help-to-protect-weakest-nations-from-super-el-nino/), [Antara](https://en.antaranews.com/news/437395/indonesias-haze-linked-respiratory-cases-fall-to-3000-a-day-govt)

Indonesia's National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) is [preparing drought measures](https://en.antaranews.com/news/437403/indonesia-prepares-for-drought-as-el-niodelays-rainy-season) because El Niño may delay the rainy season, the state news agency Antara reported. A longer dry season also extends the forest-fire season. Daily cases of acute respiratory infection linked to forest and land fires have [fallen to about 3,000](https://en.antaranews.com/news/437395/indonesias-haze-linked-respiratory-cases-fall-to-3000-a-day-govt), the government said, but continued dry weather would raise that number again.

United Nations agencies have [appealed for help](http://www.africanews.com/2026/10/22/un-agencies-appeal-for-help-to-protect-weakest-nations-from-super-el-nino/) to protect the weakest countries from what they describe as a super El Niño. They warned of damage across Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Africanews reported. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have sought [$202 million to shield 8.8 million people](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2647707/world) in 22 high-risk countries, including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Colombia and Venezuela. Forecasters cited in that appeal put the chance of a very strong or "super" El Niño heading into 2027 at 63%.

The weather is arriving when food is already expensive. World food prices in August were at their [highest level since 2022](https://www.newsweek.com/super-el-nino-and-3-other-factors-threatening-global-food-prices-12414724), Newsweek reported, citing the FAO.

## What this means

El Niño affects prices through lost harvests and through government policy. Drought in Indonesia and Malaysia reduces palm-oil yields with a lag of several months. Dry weather in Southeast Asia threatens rice. Governments of food-producing countries tend to respond by restricting exports, which shifts the shortage onto importers. The most recent precedent is July 2023, when India banned exports of non-basmati white rice during an El Niño year and Asian rice prices rose sharply in the following weeks. The parties exposed are food-importing emerging markets in Africa and South Asia, whose currencies and inflation rates depend on grain and cooking-oil imports, and central banks there that may have to raise rates on a supply shock they cannot control. Producers holding stocks gain. From a sound-money view, this is a real shortage of goods, and cheap credit cannot solve it. Rate cuts in importing countries would add currency weakness to food inflation. The desk's read: if the strong El Niño forecast holds, expect at least one major Asian food producer to restrict exports within months, and food inflation in import-dependent emerging markets to rise through 2027. A weakening El Niño in the next official forecasts would prove this wrong.

## What to watch

- Indonesian and Malaysian palm-oil output data over the next two quarters. A decline would confirm that the drought has reached harvests.
- Export policy statements from India, Vietnam and Thailand on rice. Any restriction would move the shortage from producers to importers.
- Whether donors fund the United Nations appeal. A shortfall would leave the most exposed countries to cover food imports from their own reserves.