# Brazil Votes Sunday With Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied at 50% in the Final Datafolha Poll

The real closed below 5 per dollar for the first time since October 12 as markets leaned toward the challenger, and both candidates promised household debt relief in the last debate.

- Published: 2026-10-24T05:16:48.483Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-24/brazil-votes-sunday-with-lula-and-fl-vio-bolsonaro-tied-at-5
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [MercoPress](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/bolsonaro-apologises-twice-to-lula-in-a-calmer-final-debate-as-polls-show-a-dead-heat?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss), [MercoPress](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/lula-accuses-bolsonaro-of-licking-trump-s-boots-in-the-final-debate?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss), [InfoMoney](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/lula-e-flavio-fazem-promessas-sobre-dividas-seguranca-e-saude-no-ultimo-debate/), [Folha (Mercado)](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/adriana-fernandes/2026/10/o-dia-depois-das-eleicoes.shtml)

Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday has no clear favorite in the polls. Datafolha, commissioned by TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) at 50% each of valid votes. Counting all votes, Bolsonaro has 47% and Lula 46%. The poll surveyed 2,520 voters from October 20 to 22 and has a margin of error of two points, [according to a summary of the poll](https://vtvnews.com.br/noticias/eleicoes/eleicoes-2026-datafolha-flavio-bolsonaro-lula-2-turno-bb/). Another pollster, Real Time Big Data, [shows Bolsonaro ahead 52% to 48%](https://www.riotimesonline.com/real-time-big-data-poll-flavio-52-lula-48-oct-23-runoff-2026/).

The final televised debate on TV Globo on Friday was calmer than the first. Bolsonaro apologized to Lula twice, [MercoPress reported](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/bolsonaro-apologises-twice-to-lula-in-a-calmer-final-debate-as-polls-show-a-dead-heat?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss). Lula still accused his rival of "licking the boots" of US President Donald Trump, [according to a second MercoPress account](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/lula-accuses-bolsonaro-of-licking-trump-s-boots-in-the-final-debate?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss). The São Paulo business site [InfoMoney](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/lula-e-flavio-fazem-promessas-sobre-dividas-seguranca-e-saude-no-ultimo-debate/) reported that both men made promises on household debt, security, health, education, infrastructure and social programs, while trading criticism of the economy and accusations of corruption.

Markets have priced a Bolsonaro win more firmly than the polls support. The real gained 1.57% on Friday to 4.9654 per dollar, its first close below 5 since October 12, and the Ibovespa rose 0.47% to 205,083, [The Rio Times reported](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-markets-ibovespa-real-friday-october-23-2026). The same outlet said prediction markets gave Bolsonaro about a 77% chance of winning.

Folha columnist Adriana Fernandes [wrote](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/adriana-fernandes/2026/10/o-dia-depois-das-eleicoes.shtml) that the centrão, the bloc of deal-making parties that controls Congress, will start reorganizing as soon as the result is announced, and faster still if the Bolsonaro family returns to the presidential palace.

## What this means

Brazil's currency and local interest rates are priced on fiscal credibility, and both candidates spent the last debate promising debt relief that adds to spending. The consensus treats a Bolsonaro win as a fiscal fix. In practice the centrão will set the price of any spending rule in Congress whoever wins. The market has already priced much of a Bolsonaro victory: prediction markets put his chances near 77% while the main poll shows a tie. That makes the risk lopsided. If Bolsonaro wins, expect an initial rally in the real that fades within weeks unless his team names a finance minister committed to a binding spending limit. If Lula wins, expect a sharp fall in the real and a rise in local rates, larger than a neutral market would produce, because positioning favored the other side. What decides between the two after Sunday is the composition of the economic team and the first deal with the centrão on the 2027 budget.

## What to watch

- The concession, or the absence of one, on Sunday night. A contested result would add a political risk premium on top of the fiscal one.
- The winner's choice of finance minister. The name will tell markets whether debt-relief promises come with offsetting cuts.
- The centrão's demands in the first week. Large budget-amendment demands would show Congress, not the president, setting fiscal policy.