# Brazil votes in a presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro with polls showing a tie

The real has gained about 4% against the dollar since the first round, which Flávio Bolsonaro won narrowly, and prediction-market bettors favor him.

- Published: 2026-10-25T05:18:39.834Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-25/brazil-votes-in-a-presidential-runoff-between-lula-and-fl-vi
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: world
- Sources: [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/24/lula-da-silva-supporters-rally-eve-brazil-election-runoff-bolsonaro), [MercoPress](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/bolsonaro-apologises-twice-to-lula-in-a-calmer-final-debate-as-polls-show-a-dead-heat?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss), [Agência Brasil](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/em-brasilia-atos-por-lula-e-flavio-ficam-2-km-de-distancia), [Clarín](https://www.clarin.com/economia/balotaje-brasil-clave-arcor-despegar-mercado-libre-techint_0_ZtDO4qJ7lH.html)

Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday in the runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. On Saturday, more than one million Lula supporters [gathered on Rio de Janeiro's best-known beach](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/24/lula-da-silva-supporters-rally-eve-brazil-election-runoff-bolsonaro), according to The Guardian. In Brasília, the state news agency Agência Brasil reported, in Portuguese, that [rallies for the two candidates took place only two kilometers apart, and supporters of the two sides provoked each other](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/em-brasilia-atos-por-lula-e-flavio-ficam-2-km-de-distancia).

Friday's final televised debate on TV Globo was [calmer than the first, and Flávio Bolsonaro apologized twice to Lula](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/bolsonaro-apologises-twice-to-lula-in-a-calmer-final-debate-as-polls-show-a-dead-heat?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss). MercoPress reports that the candidates went into the debate level in the polls. Lula accused his opponent of ["licking Trump's boots"](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/24/lula-accuses-bolsonaro-of-licking-trump-s-boots-in-the-final-debate?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss), which made relations with Washington a campaign issue. Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), [asked voters to stay alert and judge carefully the information that circulates on election day](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-10/nunes-marques-pede-vigilancia-e-senso-critico-com-noticias-no-2o-turno).

The polls have been wrong before in this election. Before the first round on October 4, Datafolha's final survey showed Lula ahead by 45% to 42%. The count gave [Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16%](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/). Markets have adjusted to that result. The real [has gained about 4% against the dollar since the first round](https://www.riotimesonline.com/datafolha-poll-flavio-51-lula-49-final-runoff-2026/), and on the Polymarket prediction market the probability assigned to a Flávio Bolsonaro win [rose to 83% on Saturday](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-bettors-back-flavio-bolsonaro-83-percent-2026/).

The result matters beyond Brazil. Argentina's Clarín lists the companies most exposed to the vote, [including Arcor, Mercado Libre, Techint and Despegar](https://www.clarin.com/economia/balotaje-brasil-clave-arcor-despegar-mercado-libre-techint_0_ZtDO4qJ7lH.html), because Brazil is central to their revenue and supply chains.

## What this means

The currency has already moved as though Flávio Bolsonaro will win, so the main market risk now lies in a Lula victory or a disputed count. The most exposed are holders of Brazilian local-currency debt, the real, and regional companies with large Brazilian sales. The consensus treats a Bolsonaro victory as fiscally sound in itself. In practice, the real will respond to the spending framework the winner commits to and to the congressional coalition that can pass it. November 2022 is the precedent: the real and the Ibovespa fell sharply within days of Lula's narrow victory, after he signaled spending outside the fiscal cap. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the likelier outcome is limited further gains for the real, followed by a test within weeks of whether his coalition commits to a clear fiscal anchor. If Lula wins, expect a sharp sell-off in the real and local rates at Monday's open as investors unwind pre-election positions. Either read is wrong if the margin is narrow enough for the loser to contest the result. In that case a political risk premium would dominate for weeks, regardless of fiscal plans.

## What to watch

- Whether the losing candidate concedes on Sunday night. A delay would add political risk to Brazilian assets on top of fiscal risk.
- The winner's first statement on the fiscal framework and on the finance minister. This will decide whether the real keeps its post-first-round gains.
- The makeup of Brazil's Congress. The size of the winner's working majority decides whether fiscal promises can pass.