# Israelis vote with polls showing neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Eisenkot's bloc reaching a majority

About 7.3 million eligible voters choose among 36 lists in the first election since October 7, 2023, and JPMorgan estimates the shekel could move by up to 3% depending on the result.

- Published: 2026-10-27T05:06:34.199Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-27/israelis-vote-with-polls-showing-neither-netanyahu-s-bloc-no
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: geopolitics
- Sources: [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/2040163/israelis-to-decide-netanyahus-fate-in-pivotal-election-today), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/27/israel-election-2026-live-netanyahu-faces-tough-test-in-high-stakes-polls), [IRNA (Farsi)](https://www.irna.ir/news/86304397/%D8%A8%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%B1%DA%98%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B5%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B4%DA%A9%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%87%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%85), [Ynet (Hebrew)](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/hj4rakt2fe)

Israelis vote on Tuesday to elect the 26th Knesset. [Ynet reports](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/hj4rakt2fe) that 7,331,981 eligible voters will choose among 36 lists at 12,018 polling stations. [Dawn notes](https://www.dawn.com/news/2040163/israelis-to-decide-netanyahus-fate-in-pivotal-election-today) that this is the first national vote since the October 7, 2023 attack and that it will deliver a verdict on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and on the country's move to the right. [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/27/israel-election-2026-live-netanyahu-faces-tough-test-in-high-stakes-polls) describes the election as widely billed as the most consequential in Israel's history.

The final polls point to a hung parliament. Haaretz's [poll tracker](https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/elections/2026-10-26/ty-article-static/0000019d-f2ad-db6e-ab9f-f7bd1bda0000) shows Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc at about 50 seats and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, at between 52 and 56. Neither reaches the 61 needed to govern. Al Jazeera's [analysis of possible outcomes](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/25/israeli-elections-what-are-the-possible-outcomes) says smaller parties and Arab parties could decide who forms a coalition.

Markets are positioned for a change of government. Israeli business site Mako reports that [betting markets give Eisenkot a 56% chance](https://www.mako.co.il/finances-news/Article-1e0de8f01c771a1027.htm) of becoming prime minister, against 28.5% for Netanyahu, who stood at 63.5% at the start of the year. Mako also cites a JPMorgan estimate that the shekel could move by up to 3% on the result, stronger on an opposition win and weaker on another Netanyahu government. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rose 1.5% before the vote.

Iran's state news agency IRNA, which refers to Israel as the "Zionist regime," [framed the vote](https://www.irna.ir/news/86304397/%D8%A8%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%B1%DA%98%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B5%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B4%DA%A9%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%87%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%85) around the October 7 security failure, the costs of regional war and domestic crises, and said rivals' poll leads had put Netanyahu's political future in doubt. Tehran has an interest in presenting the war as politically costly for Israel's leadership. The polling data, independent of that framing, do show Netanyahu's bloc trailing.

## What this means

Israeli coalition arithmetic affects the risk premium on the shekel, on Israeli sovereign debt and indirectly on oil, because the next government will set Israel's posture toward Iran and toward any US-Iran arrangement. An Eisenkot-led coalition would probably cooperate more closely with Washington's diplomatic track but would not drop Israel's core security demands. Eisenkot ran the military and shares the security establishment's view of Iran. A Netanyahu-led coalition would keep a harder line and keep friction with the military command, which [Globes reports](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001560926#utm_source=RSS) could cost the current chief of staff his post. Markets have priced an opposition win, so the larger move would come from a Netanyahu recovery. The precedent is 2019 to 2021, when four elections in two years produced deadlock, and coalition talks could again take weeks or lead to a repeat vote. The likelier outcome is weeks of coalition bargaining in which Arab and centrist parties hold the deciding seats, with the shekel moving on exit polls tonight and then trading in a range. A clear 61-seat result for either bloc would prove that read wrong.

## What to watch

- Tonight's exit polls on whether either bloc crosses 61 seats. A clear majority would end the uncertainty that markets have priced, and a deadlock would extend it.
- The shekel's move against the dollar on Wednesday. A rally would confirm that investors expect a change of government, and a sell-off would mean Netanyahu outperformed the polls.
- Statements from Arab-led parties on whether they will support an Eisenkot coalition from outside government. Their position will decide whether the opposition can actually govern.