# Houthis Say They Hit Saudi Arabia's Largest Refinery as Washington Tells Gulf Allies to Prepare for an Iran Campaign After the Midterms

Brent crude rose $1.48 to $115.36 a barrel in Asian trading, after falling nearly $2 on Tuesday on hopes for diplomatic progress in the region, and Iran told mediators that any new attack would bring strikes on Gulf airports and pipelines.

- Published: 2026-10-28T05:14:20.076Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-28/houthis-say-they-hit-saudi-arabia-s-largest-refinery-as-wash
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-as-Houthi-Attacks-Reignite-Saudi-Supply-Fears.html), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-rise-after-attack-on-saudi-arabian-refinery-reignites-supply-concerns-4977369), [RT](https://rt-english.com/news/647862-us-warns-renewed-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS), [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/2040346/pakistan-warns-against-escalation-in-iran-crisis-urges-diplomacy)

Yemen's Houthi movement said on Tuesday that it struck Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, with a ballistic missile. Yahya Saree, the group's military spokesman, said on X that the missile hit its target and caused large fires, [Anadolu Agency reported](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/yemen-s-houthis-claim-missile-attack-on-saudi-arabia-s-ras-tanura-oil-refinery/4102578). Saudi authorities had not confirmed a strike on the 550,000 barrel-per-day facility, according to [Reuters reporting carried by Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-rise-after-attack-on-saudi-arabian-refinery-reignites-supply-concerns-4977369). The Houthis have launched missiles and drones at Saudi airports, oil sites and military facilities since July, and the pace of attacks increased in October.

Crude prices reversed course on the claim. Brent futures rose $1.48, or 1.3%, to $115.36 a barrel early on Wednesday, and US West Texas Intermediate rose $1.22 to $101.12, [Business Recorder reported](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446270/oil-prices-rise-after-attack-on-saudi-arabian-refinery-reignites-supply-concerns). Brent had fallen nearly $2 on Tuesday after diplomatic contacts eased concerns about supply. [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-as-Houthi-Attacks-Reignite-Saudi-Supply-Fears.html) also cited falling inventories and reports that the United States is preparing a new military campaign against Iran.

That second report matters more for prices in the weeks ahead. The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington has told several Gulf Arab governments to prepare for a short but intense campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Russian state broadcaster [RT](https://rt-english.com/news/647862-us-warns-renewed-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS) and [TASS](https://tass.com/world/2209199) both carried the report prominently. According to [investingLive's summary of the Journal's reporting](https://investinglive.com/commodities/us-warns-gulf-allies-of-possible-short-intense-iran-campaign-after-midterms-wsj/), the warnings went through diplomatic and military channels. The report says President Donald Trump has not made a final decision but leans toward a large-scale attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites. The Pentagon has withdrawn personnel from exposed bases, and US forces are restocking munitions. [Euronews Persian](https://parsi.euronews.com/2026/10/28/us-warns-short-intense-iran-strikes-post-election-war-cost-exceeds-47-billion-oct-2026) reported that the White House has ruled out a strike before the vote and that the cost of the war has passed $47 billion.

Tehran has responded through mediators. Iranian outlet [Asr Iran](https://www.asriran.com/fa/news/1200821/%D9%87%D8%B4%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AC%DB%8C-%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%BE%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AE-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%BA%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%AC-%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B3-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF) reported, in Persian, that Iran warned it would not limit retaliation to US bases and warships if the United States and Israel attack again. Iran said its targets would include airports, pipelines and other civilian infrastructure in Gulf states. At the United Nations, Pakistan said the situation around Iran's nuclear program has deteriorated sharply. It urged all sides to show restraint and noted divisions within the Security Council, [Dawn reported](https://www.dawn.com/news/2040346/pakistan-warns-against-escalation-in-iran-crisis-urges-diplomacy).

The accounts differ in emphasis. Western reporting presents the campaign as pressure meant to bring Tehran back to talks. Russian state outlets present it as evidence of Washington's intent to escalate. Iranian outlets stress what Iran would do in response. The Houthi damage claim is unverified, and claims from every party in this conflict warrant caution.

## What this means

Oil markets rely on Saudi Arabia's spare production capacity as the cushion they count on during a Gulf crisis. Houthi strikes on Saudi processing plants, and Iran's stated list of targets, put that cushion itself at risk. Asian importers such as India, Japan and South Korea are exposed through their import bills and currencies. Producers outside the Gulf, including US shale, Brazil and Russia, gain on higher prices. A price of $115 already reflects a substantial war premium. What is new is a specific date window, opening after November 3, and an explicit Iranian threat against Gulf civilian infrastructure. The phrase "short and intense," used to describe the planned campaign, assumes Iran's response stays contained, but Tehran's message to mediators says it will not. The closest precedent is the September 2019 attack on Abqaiq and Khurais, which briefly cut about half of Saudi output. Brent rose about 15% in one session, then lost most of that gain within two weeks as Saudi Aramco restored supply. The desk's read is that the premium holds or widens through the first half of November, because the decision window now has a fixed date. If US strikes go ahead and Iran hits facilities in several Gulf states, the disruption would be larger and longer than in 2019, because repairs would be spread across several countries. This read is wrong if Washington and Tehran announce a renewed negotiating track before November 3, or if Riyadh confirms that Ras Tanura was not damaged and the Houthi launches stop.

## What to watch

- Whether Saudi Aramco or the Saudi government reports damage at Ras Tanura. Confirmed damage would make Wednesday's rise a supply story, and a denial would leave it a risk premium that can fade.
- Further US bomber, carrier and evacuation movements before November 3, which would show whether the post-midterm campaign is moving from contingency planning to execution.
- Any Iranian statement naming specific Gulf airports, pipelines or terminals, which would shift risk from Iran's own exports to the infrastructure of US-aligned Gulf states.