# Netanyahu's Likud Leads Israel's Count but Neither Bloc Nears the 61 Seats Needed to Govern

With about a third of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc held 57 to 59 projected seats against 46 to 47 for Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc, on turnout of 77.7%.

- Published: 2026-10-28T05:14:20.076Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-28/netanyahu-s-likud-leads-israel-s-count-but-neither-bloc-near
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: geopolitics
- Sources: [Globes (Hebrew)](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001561045#utm_source=RSS), [Ynet (Hebrew)](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/ry842xkafx), [Jiji Press](https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2026102800149&g=int), [Financial Times World](https://www.ft.com/content/6dab34da-a039-46e6-9547-0c7213a00001?syn-25a6b1a6=1)

Israel's first general election since the October 7, 2023 attacks has produced no majority. After 31% of votes were counted, the bloc of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had 59 projected seats and the opposition "change bloc" had 46, Israeli business daily [Globes reported](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001561045#utm_source=RSS) in Hebrew. Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999, according to Globes. At 37% counted, [Ynet's tally](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/elections2026/article/bj5pk302zg) showed 57 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 47 for the change bloc and 16 for Arab parties, with Likud on 28 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar! on 21.

Exit polls earlier showed a closer race. Channels 13 and 11 put both blocs at 51 seats, and Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 to the opposition's 49, [Axios reported](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/27/netanyahu-eisenkot-israel-election-exit-polls). Japan's [Jiji Press](https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2026102800149&g=int) summarized the result in its headline: "Neither the governing nor the opposition camp reaches a majority, right-wing Likud likely the largest party, Netanyahu eager to continue in government." Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a former military chief, told supporters after midnight that they would form the next government.

Netanyahu urged rivals to join a "Jewish coalition" and to exclude Arab parties, [the Financial Times reported](https://www.ft.com/content/6dab34da-a039-46e6-9547-0c7213a00001?syn-25a6b1a6=1). That appeal matters because the Arab parties' 16 projected seats make it hard for the opposition to reach 61 without them. US President Donald Trump claimed a role in the outcome. Ynet's headline on his first reaction reads, in translation: "Thanks to me Netanyahu was not defeated, there is a tie in Israel" ([Ynet](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/ry842xkafx)).

Investors had expected this result. The Tel Aviv market fell from early October as polls pointed to a deadlock, and JPMorgan estimated that the vote could move the shekel by as much as 3% in either direction, [The Times of Israel reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/tel-aviv-market-slide-points-to-investors-betting-on-election-deadlock/amp/). Final counting could take days.

## What this means

The practical outcome is that Netanyahu remains prime minister, as caretaker if necessary, while coalition talks run. Those talks will overlap the post-November 3 window in which Washington is reportedly preparing to strike Iran. Israeli decisions on joining a renewed campaign therefore stay with the current leadership regardless of the final count. The shekel and Israeli government bonds carry the political premium, which markets had partly priced through October's decline. The new information is that the Arab parties' seats make the opposition's path to 61 depend on a coalition that Netanyahu is already campaigning against. The precedent is the cycle of five elections in less than four years, from April 2019 to November 2022, which delayed budgets and left caretaker governments in office for long periods. The desk's read is that weeks of bargaining follow, with a meaningful chance of another election in 2027, and that Netanyahu's government continues to make war-and-peace decisions through the Iran window. This read is wrong if the final count gives Netanyahu's bloc 61 seats, or if a party in his bloc defects to Eisenkot within the coalition-negotiation period.

## What to watch

- The final seat count, especially whether smaller parties pass the electoral threshold, since a single list can move the outcome by several seats.
- Which leader President Isaac Herzog asks to form a government, which shows who controls the timetable for coalition talks.
- The shekel in the days after the final count, which will show whether investors price a prolonged caretaker period or a quick coalition.