# World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% this year as the Middle East war disrupts energy and shipping

The European Union is paying about €10 billion more a month for imported oil than in 2025, while Argentina's Vista exported 70% of its Vaca Muerta crude and raised operating profit 78%.

- Published: 2026-10-29T05:12:07.061Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-29/world-bank-expects-commodity-prices-to-rise-23-this-year-as
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/2040573/commodity-prices-to-surge-23pc-warns-world-bank), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/29/europes-oil-bill-eu-pays-10bn-more-per-month-than-in-2025), [Clarín](https://www.clarin.com/economia/vista-exporto-70-crudo-produce-vaca-muerta_0_GKu2FLHmRC.html), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Refineries-Become-Prime-Targets-as-Global-Fuel-Shortage-Worsens.html)

The World Bank said on Wednesday that global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, [Pakistan's Dawn reported](https://www.dawn.com/news/2040573/commodity-prices-to-surge-23pc-warns-world-bank). It cited higher energy prices, disruption to cargo shipping during the Middle East war, problems with grain shipments from the Black Sea, and strong demand for safe-haven assets.

The European Union (EU) is bearing much of that cost. Its monthly bill for imported petroleum is now about €10 billion higher than in 2025, and experts do not expect it to fall soon, [Euronews reported](https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/29/europes-oil-bill-eu-pays-10bn-more-per-month-than-in-2025). The shortage covers refined products as well as crude. A decade ago European countries closed refineries while Gulf states built new ones, [OilPrice noted](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Refineries-Become-Prime-Targets-as-Global-Fuel-Shortage-Worsens.html), and it said many of those Gulf refineries have since been damaged in the war, so their fuel output will not return quickly.

Producers outside the Gulf are gaining. Vista Energy, the Argentine shale company run by Miguel Galuccio, exported 70% of the crude it produced in the Vaca Muerta formation, [Clarín reported](https://www.clarin.com/economia/vista-exporto-70-crudo-produce-vaca-muerta_0_GKu2FLHmRC.html). Its third-quarter operating profit rose 78% from a year earlier to $841 million, and Clarín named higher oil prices as a main driver.

The World Bank's 23% figure captures two separate forces. Part of it reflects the physical destruction of energy and shipping capacity. Part of it reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar and euro, the currencies in which oil, grain and precious metals are priced. When prices rise together across largely unrelated goods, currency depreciation is doing some of that work, not scarcity alone.

## What this means

The war has shifted income from oil importers to exporters outside the conflict zone. Europe's extra €10 billion a month flows to producers in the Americas, Norway and Africa, and to Russia wherever sanctions allow. Shale exporters such as Vista benefit directly through margins and export volumes. The damage to Gulf refineries matters more than the crude price itself, because new refining capacity takes years to build. Diesel and jet fuel can therefore stay expensive even if a ceasefire lowers crude. The consensus expects a peace deal to bring energy costs down. The refinery damage means product prices would fall more slowly than crude. After the 1990-91 Gulf War, crude fell back within months, but regional refining infrastructure took years to restore. The likelier outcome is that refining margins stay high through the northern winter regardless of diplomatic progress, which keeps European headline inflation above target. A rapid restart of damaged Gulf refineries, confirmed by export data, would prove this wrong.

## What to watch

- Diesel and jet fuel prices in Rotterdam compared with crude. A widening gap would confirm that refining capacity, not crude supply, is the constraint.
- The EU's monthly import figures. A further rise would increase pressure on governments that are already trying to cut deficits.
- Export volumes from Argentina, Brazil and Guyana. Rising Atlantic Basin exports would show buyers building supply routes that avoid the Gulf.