# Brent Ends October Up 13.6% at $117.64 as Iran Says Four Tankers Struck Mines in Hormuz

The US military says the main shipping lanes are clear of mines, and an Iranian assessment reported by Globes expects US strikes to resume after the November 3 midterm elections.

- Published: 2026-10-31T05:13:16.885Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-10-31/brent-ends-october-up-13-6-at-117-64-as-iran-says-four-tanke
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-prices-soar-14-in-october-to-end-at-6-month-high-as-us-weighs-fresh-attacks-after-midterm-elections-more-upside-ahead/articleshow/135388221.cms), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/10/31/iran-says-four-tankers-on-fire-after-striking-mines-in-hormuz), [Ynet (Hebrew)](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skn6tjfaze), [Globes (Hebrew)](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001561437#utm_source=RSS)

Brent crude [rose 13.6% in October to settle at $117.64 a barrel](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-prices-soar-14-in-october-to-end-at-6-month-high-as-us-weighs-fresh-attacks-after-midterm-elections-more-upside-ahead/articleshow/135388221.cms), a six-month high, according to India's Economic Times. The paper said traders priced the risk of new US strikes on Iran and of disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard [said four tankers had caught fire](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/10/31/iran-says-four-tankers-on-fire-after-striking-mines-in-hormuz) after striking mines in the strait. [Ynet reported](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skn6tjfaze) that the Guard said the ships had ignored its warnings. Tehran says the vessels used "unauthorised routes," while [the US military says](https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/31/hormuz-tankers-mines-iran-claim) US forces have cleared all internationally recognized primary transit routes. Oman said it evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker that caught fire 1.6 nautical miles off Musandam. No independent survey has yet established whether the ships struck mines or were attacked by other means. Each side's version carries a motive: Iran gains if shippers believe only Iranian-approved routes are safe, and Washington gains if insurers believe the main lanes remain open.

Diplomacy is running at the same time. Ynet reported that a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran to try to advance an agreement with Washington, and US President Donald Trump said that Iran "wants to talk" and that the United States "has time." [Globes reported](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001561437#utm_source=RSS) a contrary assessment from Tehran. Iranian officials, it said, expect an opening for an Israeli-American strike after the midterms, aimed at deepening economic paralysis and later at toppling the government.

The cost is already reaching consumers. [OilPrice reported](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Gasoline-Up-34-and-Heating-Oil-Up-74-as-Voters-Head-to-the-Midterms.html) gasoline up 34% and heating oil up 74% as voters head to the polls.

## What this means

The channel is shipping insurance and route control. If Iran can make the unapproved lanes uninsurable without closing the strait, it raises the cost of Gulf exports and gains a toll-like lever, and it does so without the open blockade that would trigger a full US response. Refiners in Asia and importers in South Asia are the most exposed. Gulf producers with pipelines that bypass Hormuz and US shale producers gain. The market has priced the strike risk after November 3. It has not priced a lasting two-tier route system with Iranian-sanctioned passage. The precedent is the 1987 to 1988 tanker war, when mines struck reflagged tankers and the US Navy carried out escorts and retaliatory strikes, and freight and insurance premiums stayed high for more than a year. The desk's read is that the oil risk premium persists through November whatever the election result, because both a strike and a deal require weeks to carry out. A Qatari-brokered framework announced before any US strike would reverse much of October's gain within weeks. A strike on Iranian energy infrastructure would push Brent higher than the October settlement.

## What to watch

- War-risk insurance quotes for Hormuz transits. Rising quotes on the main lanes would contradict the US claim that those routes are safe.
- The results of the Qatari mission in Tehran. A public framework would reduce the chance of strikes after the midterms.
- US gasoline prices in the week after November 3. Continued increases would raise pressure on Washington to seek supply through sanctions relief elsewhere.