# Brent ends October 13.6% higher as Trump weighs new Iran strikes and OPEC+ moves to hold output

The expiring December contract settled at $117.64, its highest level since late April. Israeli officials believe diplomacy may end if there is no deal by Monday, but Washington says publicly that it has set no deadline.

- Published: 2026-11-01T05:14:26.029Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-01/brent-ends-october-13-6-higher-as-trump-weighs-new-iran-stri
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Globes (Hebrew)](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001561454#utm_source=RSS), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/1/iran-wrap-iran-latest-developments-011126), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opec-set-to-hold-december-oil-output-steady-4989332), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chevron-Raises-Exploration-Spending-By-50.html)

Oil traders closed October expecting the Iran war to escalate again. On Friday the December Brent contract expired and [settled up $2.76, or 2.4%, at $117.64 a barrel](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/oil-rises-on-supply-concerns-as-houthis-attack-saudi-arabia.html), after reaching $118 during the session. The more active January contract rose $2.63 to $113.43, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled 2.08% higher at $104.12. CNBC said traders were preparing for possible US military action after Tuesday's midterm elections, and cited an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Brent rose 13.6% over the month, and WTI rose 15.2%, [according to market tallies](https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-113-saturday-week-ahead-after-october-13-6-percent-gain-hormuz-mines-midterms-jobs-report-bull-120-bear-106/).

Israeli and US officials describe the timing differently. The Israeli business daily [Globes reported](https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001561454#utm_source=RSS) that President Donald Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Globes, Trump has not decided whether to resume fighting, and Israeli officials believe that diplomacy will be hard to continue if there is no agreement by Monday. Globes also quoted Trump as saying the United States could deal with Iran's nuclear facilities "in ten minutes." In Atlanta, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the end of the Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers' meeting that [Trump had set no deadline](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/10/31/us-iran-strikes-g20-rubio/) for the Qatar-led talks. He added that military strikes remain an option.

Tehran says publicly that talks are still possible but sets conditions on them. [Al Jazeera reported](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/1/iran-wrap-iran-latest-developments-011126) that both foreign ministers still describe a diplomatic end to the war as possible. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an aide was in Qatar to continue consultations. On Saturday, a senior Iranian official said there would be [no nuclear talks and no reopening of Hormuz](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-31-2026/) until Washington accepts Iran's demands.

Producers are not responding with more supply in the short term. Seven members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) are [set to hold December output steady](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opec-set-to-hold-december-oil-output-steady-4989332), according to a Reuters report carried by Investing.com. Those members had already kept November output at [31.01 million barrels per day](https://tradearabia.com/News/487447/OPEC-seven-agree-to-maintain-November-production-levels). The investment response is longer term. [Chevron raised its exploration spending by 50%](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chevron-Raises-Exploration-Spending-By-50.html) and is returning to high-impact frontier wells after years of concentrating on the US Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin. Barrels from those wells will take years to arrive. The risk is closer for Saudi Arabia: the US embassy in Riyadh has [ordered non-emergency staff to leave](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/oil-rises-on-supply-concerns-as-houthis-attack-saudi-arabia.html) because of Houthi attacks on airports and other infrastructure.

## What this means

The December contract settled about $4 above January, so buyers are paying extra for oil delivered now. Importers in Asia and Europe, airlines, and refiners that need immediate cargoes pay that premium. Producers outside the Gulf, including US shale, Brazil and Russia, collect it. Most commentary treats Monday as a choice between a deal and strikes. The desk thinks that view is incomplete. The Houthi campaign against Saudi facilities and Iran's conditions on reopening Hormuz both operate independently of whether Washington and Tehran keep talking. OPEC+ is choosing not to add supply into that risk. The likelier outcome is that crude keeps most of its October premium for the next several weeks even if the Qatar talks continue, because a reopening of Hormuz is the only development that would bring Gulf barrels back. The 2019 attack on Abqaiq is a useful comparison: the premium faded within weeks once Saudi output recovered. That is why the desk would watch physical flows more closely than statements. The read is wrong if the gap between near-month and later contracts narrows sharply while talks remain stalled. That would show the market expects supply to recover whatever the diplomacy does.

## What to watch

- Whether Trump announces strikes or an extension after Tuesday's midterm vote, because Israeli officials have described Monday as the point at which diplomacy becomes hard to sustain.
- The price gap between the nearest Brent contract and later months, which shows whether traders are still paying extra for immediate barrels.
- Any Houthi claim of a new strike on Saudi processing sites such as Abqaiq or Ras Tanura, because those attacks would keep the premium in place even if Washington and Tehran agree.