# Brent climbs back toward $100 after new Hormuz tanker attacks but heads for a weekly loss of about 12%

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan say high prices have pushed the oil market back into surplus, and China's third-quarter carbon emissions fell 3.1% as industrial fuel use declined.

- Published: 2026-11-06T09:38:00.817Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-06/brent-climbs-back-toward-100-after-new-hormuz-tanker-attacks
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-rises-on-fresh-tanker-attacks-but-heads-for-steep-weekly-loss-5006219), [OilPrice (glut)](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Global-Oil-Glut-Returns-as-High-Prices-Crush-Demand.html), [OilPrice (China emissions)](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Carbon-Emissions-Plunge-31-as-Oil-Demand-Slumps.html), [Invezz](https://invezz.com/ng/news/2026/11/06/oil-prices-today-brent-nears-dollar100-despite-12percent-weekly-slump/)

Brent crude [rose $1.57, or 1.6%, to $99.86 a barrel](https://hdfcsky.com/news/brent-crude-oil-price-today-november-6-2026-brent-reclaims-100-wti-nears-92-both-benchmarks-head-for-12percent-weekly-decline) early on Friday, and some quotes briefly passed $100. It was the second straight daily gain. Brent and West Texas Intermediate are still [headed for weekly declines of about 12%](https://invezz.com/ng/news/2026/11/06/oil-prices-today-brent-nears-dollar100-despite-12percent-weekly-slump/). [Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-rises-on-fresh-tanker-attacks-but-heads-for-steep-weekly-loss-5006219) attributes the rebound to new attacks on tankers.

The weekly loss came from politics. Oil [fell 8% on Wednesday after Democrats won broad victories in the US midterm elections](https://vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/why-brent-crude-oil-price-fell-midterms-iran-peace-bets-ukousd-usousd-november-6-2026), as traders bet on a de-escalation of the US and Israeli war with Iran. The rebound came from the sea. Iranian authorities reported three more tanker attacks on Thursday, and Daniel Hynes, a strategist at ANZ, said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were under 60% of capacity.

Demand is falling as prices stay high. According to [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Global-Oil-Glut-Returns-as-High-Prices-Crush-Demand.html), analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan estimate that the global market has returned to surplus because high prices have destroyed demand, and that fear of a glut is replacing fear of a deficit. China's numbers support that view. Citing Reuters and the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, [OilPrice reports](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Carbon-Emissions-Plunge-31-as-Oil-Demand-Slumps.html) that China's carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1% in the third quarter as industrial fuel use declined.

High prices are rationing oil faster than diplomacy is supplying it. Refiners and industry in the largest importing country have cut use, and that shrinks the premium that each new attack can add. The premium has not disappeared. With Hormuz flows at less than 60% of normal, a single attack still adds a few dollars a barrel within hours.

## What this means

Two forces set the price. Physical supply from the Gulf is restricted and lifts the price after each attack. Demand at around $100 is weak enough that analysts see a surplus, and it pulls the price down whenever diplomacy looks possible. Gulf exporters with pipelines that avoid Hormuz gain from both. Importers with little storage, such as large Asian buyers, carry the risk of a spike. The market already priced a US-Iran de-escalation after the election. The new risk is the reported US option to resume strikes on November 9, which the price does not yet reflect. The consensus "glut" view assumes Hormuz flows recover. If flows stay below 60%, the surplus Goldman and JPMorgan describe does not reach buyers who need Gulf crude grades. In 2019, after the attack on Abqaiq, the rise in Brent prices reversed within weeks because spare capacity covered the loss. Today, the Gulf region's spare production capacity lies behind the same strait that is under attack. The likelier outcome is a range of roughly $90 to $105 in the coming weeks, with price spikes on each attack and declines on each diplomatic signal. That holds unless the United States resumes strikes. Renewed strikes would push the price above that range within days. A verified reopening of Hormuz to normal traffic would push it below that range.

## What to watch

- Whether Washington resumes strikes on Iran around November 9. Renewed strikes would test whether demand weakness can still cap prices.
- Reported tanker transits through Hormuz. A recovery toward normal flows would let the surplus that analysts describe reach buyers in practice.
- China's October crude imports and refinery runs. Further declines would confirm that demand destruction, not diplomacy, is setting the price.