# Germany Starts Winter Well Short of Its Gas Storage Target as Tanker Attack Tests Pakistan's Hormuz Deal With Iran

Russian state media say German storage has fallen below 60%, against a legal target of 80% for Nov. 1, and liquefied natural gas shipments through Hormuz ran at about 30% of prewar levels in October.

- Published: 2026-11-08T05:20:24.935Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-08/germany-starts-winter-well-short-of-its-gas-storage-target-a
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/pakistan-s-hormuz-agreement-with-iran-faces-test-after-lng-tanker-attack), [BFM.ru](https://www.bfm.ru/news/623193), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wars-May-Spur-Faster-Electrification.html)

Two gas-importing regions are entering the northern winter with thin supply margins. Russia's BFM.ru, citing RIA Novosti, reports that [German underground storage has fallen below 60%](https://www.bfm.ru/news/623193), and that Latvia and Slovakia are also below that level. Germany's network regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, put the level at [61.7% on Oct. 29](https://ms-aktuell.de/welt/gasspeicher-fuellstand-30-10-2026/). The country's storage rules call for at least 80% on Nov. 1, although six facilities only have to reach 45%.

The other pressure point is in South Asia. Nikkei Asia reports that [Pakistan's agreement with Iran for safe passage through Hormuz is being tested](https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/pakistan-s-hormuz-agreement-with-iran-faces-test-after-lng-tanker-attack) after an attack on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker. The Qatari-chartered Al Mayeda, bound for Pakistan, was [struck near the strait on Oct. 30](https://gcaptain.com/pakistan-lng-cargo-attacked-near-hormuz-had-iranian-approval/), shortly after Iranian authorities had reportedly approved its passage. All 25 crew members were safe. Qatar and Saudi Arabia condemned the attack, and no party has claimed it. Pakistan and Iraq signed separate transit agreements with Iran in May. If the cargo does not arrive, Pakistan may have to buy on the spot market, where prices have [more than tripled since before the war](https://theprint.in/world/pakistan-in-dire-need-of-lng-after-fresh-hormuz-tension-disrupts-fuel-supply/2981783/).

Higher prices are changing demand. OilPrice reports that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have [driven up electric vehicle sales and reduced gas use](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wars-May-Spur-Faster-Electrification.html) in favor of other power sources. With the next United Nations climate conference (COP31) starting next week, some participants say faster electrification could become an energy-security policy and not only a climate policy.

The sources each have reasons to emphasize their version. Russian state outlets have a clear interest in highlighting Europe's vulnerability after it cut Russian pipeline gas. The German regulator's own figure supports their point, even though it is slightly higher than theirs. The Pakistan case shows that a bilateral agreement with Tehran does not protect a cargo when the attacker is unknown.

## What this means

Europe and South Asia now compete for the same limited spot LNG cargoes, and the buyer able to pay more wins. Germany's industrial users and Pakistan's power sector and foreign-exchange reserves are exposed, while Qatar and US LNG exporters benefit from higher prices. The market has priced some winter tightness. What is new is evidence that Iranian clearance does not guarantee safe passage, which reduces the value of every bilateral transit deal in the Gulf. The precedent is 2022, when European buyers outbid Pakistan and Bangladesh for LNG, and both countries suffered extended blackouts and fuel rationing. The desk's read is that in a normal or cold winter Europe again outbids South Asian buyers over the coming months, and that Pakistan responds with more power cuts and more pressure on its reserves. That depends on Hormuz LNG shipments staying well below prewar levels. A US-Iran agreement that restores those flows would prove this wrong, because it would release enough supply for both regions.

## What to watch

- Weekly German storage withdrawals through December. A steep drop in early winter would push European buyers into the spot market and raise prices for every importer.
- Pakistan's next LNG tender and whether cargoes are awarded. A failed tender would show Islamabad is being outbid and would lead to power rationing.
- Whether anyone claims the Al Mayeda attack or is credibly identified. Attribution would show whether Iran's transit guarantees are failing because Iran cannot enforce them or because some groups choose to ignore them.