# Argentina's country risk premium closes near 939 points as Pope Leo tells Milei the economy must serve the poor

Argentine markets reopen on Wednesday after holidays for the papal visit, and the American Chamber of Commerce warned that the Democratic win in Congress could put conditions on US financial support heading into 2027.

- Published: 2026-11-09T05:08:23.120Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-09/argentina-s-country-risk-premium-closes-near-939-points-as-p
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Clarín](https://www.clarin.com/economia/semana-corta-mercados-gobierno-enfrenta-rueda-clave-fuertes-caidas-bonos-acciones_0_rSiFFSWCiC.html), [Ámbito](https://www.ambito.com/economia/tras-la-derrota-trump-eeuu-ratifico-su-apoyo-milei-pero-crecen-las-dudas-la-asistencia-financiera-2027-n6342951), [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/09/pope-leo-argentina-visit-speech-javier-milei-austerity), [Buenos Aires Times](https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-hits-back-at-pope-leos-call-for-dialogue.phtml)

Argentina's country risk premium [closed at 939 points](https://www.clarin.com/economia/semana-corta-mercados-gobierno-enfrenta-rueda-clave-fuertes-caidas-bonos-acciones_0_rSiFFSWCiC.html) after a sell-off in the government's dollar bonds, Clarín reported. The government intervened, but the losses spread to the peso market. Markets stay closed until Wednesday for holidays during the papal visit. In July the same spread over US Treasuries stood at [402 points](https://www.canal26.com/economia/2026/11/05/se-hunden-los-bonos-argentinos-y-el-riesgo-pais-supera-los-900-puntos-su-maximo-en-mas-de-un-ano/).

The US election is part of the cause. US Ambassador Peter Lamelas said Washington's commitment to Argentina remains firm despite the Democratic victory. Ámbito reported, however, that the American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina warned that the new balance in Congress [could put conditions on financial backing, including support ahead of 2027](https://www.ambito.com/economia/tras-la-derrota-trump-eeuu-ratifico-su-apoyo-milei-pero-crecen-las-dudas-la-asistencia-financiera-2027-n6342951).

Pope Leo XIV, on the first papal visit to Argentina in 39 years, stood beside President Javier Milei and said that ["the economy must be at the service of the person"](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/11/09/leo-xiv-before-milei-the-economy-must-serve-the-person?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss). The Guardian described the speech as [a sharp criticism of Milei's austerity policies](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/09/pope-leo-argentina-visit-speech-javier-milei-austerity). Milei replied that he is open to dialogue, but he [accused the opposition of trying to undermine economic stability](https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-hits-back-at-pope-leos-call-for-dialogue.phtml).

The poverty data support the point the pope was making to his audience. Ámbito cited an estimate that poverty rose in the third quarter to [16.2 million people, about 3.4 million more than in 2025](https://www.ambito.com/economia/estiman-que-la-pobreza-subio-el-tercer-trimestre-y-ya-afecta-162-millones-argentinos-n6342928). The Group of Six, which unites the main industrial, farm, banking, construction and stock-exchange associations, called for [a broad dialogue with government and unions](https://www.clarin.com/economia/visita-papa-empresarios-llaman-mesa-amplia-dialogo-gobierno-trabajadores_0_CA5uC3Ssg7.html) to agree on a few principles that would outlast any one government.

## What this means

Argentina's stabilization depends on borrowed dollars more than on reserves the central bank has built itself. Investors have treated the US Treasury's 2025 swap line as an implicit guarantee. A Democratic Congress cannot easily cancel that line, but it can hold hearings and attach conditions, and the bond market is already pricing that risk. Argentina's dollar bonds, the peso and the 2027 maturities are exposed. Every intervention to support bonds or the peso draws down reserves the government does not have to spare. The papal visit adds political pressure on the austerity that produced the fiscal surplus the bonds rely on. Wednesday's reopening is the first test. The likelier outcome is that the spread stays above 900 points into year-end as long as the government keeps selling reserves to defend prices. A public, dated reaffirmation of the swap line from the US Treasury would cut that premium and prove the read wrong.

## What to watch

- Bond and peso trading when markets reopen on Wednesday. A move back above 939 points would show that the holiday pause did not calm the sell-off.
- Central bank reserve figures over the next two weeks. A steep drop would show how much the government is spending to defend prices.
- Statements from the US Treasury or incoming Democratic committee chairs on the Argentina swap line. Any proposed conditions would make the backstop risk concrete.