# Brent falls below $100 after Trump calls new Iran strikes unlikely, while Rubio says Tehran's demands are unrealistic

Trump said a deal would already have been signed if not for the midterm elections, and Iraq says it is pumping more than 5 million barrels a day, half a million above its requirement under the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

- Published: 2026-11-09T05:08:23.120Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-09/brent-falls-below-100-after-trump-calls-new-iran-strikes-unl
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-november-9-crude-oil-falls-below-100-again-as-trump-says-fresh-attacks-highly-unlikely-what-are-experts-saying/articleshow/135668247.cms), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/9/rubio-says-war-on-iran-unpopular-but-necessary-to-stop-nuclear-threat), [TASS](https://tass.com/world/2214577), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraqs-5-Million-Bpd-Oil-Claim-Complicates-Its-OPEC-Quota-Push.html)

Crude [fell below $100 a barrel again](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-november-9-crude-oil-falls-below-100-again-as-trump-says-fresh-attacks-highly-unlikely-what-are-experts-saying/articleshow/135668247.cms) on Monday after President Trump told CNN that new attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks progressed. Brent traded between about $97.67 and $98.20, [HDFC Sky reported](https://hdfcsky.com/news/brent-crude-oil-price-today-november-9-2026-brent-slips-to-98-wti-rises-to-91-supply-outlook-in-focus-amid-trump-peace-remarks). That was down from a $104.77 settlement on November 2 and from near $118 the Friday before. Trump added a condition: "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement."

Trump told Russian state agency TASS's English service, in remarks the agency relayed, that [Washington and Tehran would have signed a deal had it not been for the midterms](https://tass.com/world/2214577). He said he remains confident an agreement will come. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sounded harder. He called the war unpopular but ["necessary" to stop a nuclear threat](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/9/rubio-says-war-on-iran-unpopular-but-necessary-to-stop-nuclear-threat) and described Iran's negotiating demands as "outrageous and ridiculous, and really not realistic."

Tehran presents the talks differently. Iranian outlets report that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said [negotiations continue through intermediaries including Pakistan and Qatar, and that it is the American side that closes the road](https://www.hamshahrionline.ir/news/1078750/%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%DA%86%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B0%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7). Israel's Ynet reported that commentators in Iran [read Trump's midterm defeat as American public opposition to renewed fighting, while remembering that they face "bruised and angry" leaders](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra14949028).

Supply discipline is weakening at the same time. Iraqi Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said his country [already produces more than 5 million barrels a day, more than half a million above its OPEC+ requirement](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraqs-5-Million-Bpd-Oil-Claim-Complicates-Its-OPEC-Quota-Push.html). The statement complicates Baghdad's own bid for a larger quota.

## What this means

The oil risk premium is shrinking because Washington's domestic politics now constrain it, not because the dispute is closer to settlement. Trump needs lower pump prices, and a Democratic Congress can force war-powers votes. Tehran reads that constraint as leverage and has no reason to soften its terms. A stalled negotiation without new strikes is therefore the base case. It would let crude drift lower while the Strait of Hormuz risk stays unresolved. Importers such as India and Japan gain from cheaper barrels. Gulf and Russian revenues lose. Iraq's overproduction weakens OPEC+'s ability to defend prices. The consensus treats Rubio's language as noise, but it keeps a strike threat alive that the market has stopped pricing. The likelier outcome is Brent trading below $100 for the coming weeks as long as no US strike or maritime incident occurs. This read fails if Trump sets a deadline for Tehran or a tanker is attacked near Hormuz. Either event would bring the premium back within days.

## What to watch

- Whether Trump sets a public deadline for an Iranian signature. A deadline would turn the current no-strike stance back into a dated threat and restore part of the oil premium.
- Statements from Pakistani or Qatari mediators on a new round of talks. A scheduled meeting would support Araghchi's claim that the channel remains open.
- OPEC+ responses to Iraq's production claim. Tolerance of the excess would show that the group has stopped defending prices as war-driven demand for spare supply fades.