# Argentina Awaits October Inflation Data With Monthly Price Growth Stuck Near 2%

Analysts expect a 1.8% monthly rise on Thursday, while textile output has fallen almost 34% in three years and about 1,000 textile firms have closed under President Javier Milei.

- Published: 2026-11-11T05:05:05.566Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-11/argentina-awaits-october-inflation-data-with-monthly-price-g
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Clarín (Economía)](https://www.clarin.com/economia/inflacion-sigue-viva-gobierno-termina-explicar-piensa-matarla_0_9JVtfX3eWm.html), [Clarín (Economía)](https://www.clarin.com/economia/efecto-importaciones-produccion-textil-cayo-34-anos-gestion-milei-perdieron-1000-empresas_0_7Cjj8ZmqfK.html), [Ámbito (Economía)](https://www.ambito.com/economia/rigi-advierten-que-dos-tercios-las-importaciones-pueden-ser-abastecidas-la-industria-local-n6343676)

Argentina's national statistics institute (Indec) publishes October consumer prices on Thursday, and the market expects a 1.8% monthly rise, [Clarín reported](https://www.clarin.com/economia/inflacion-sigue-viva-gobierno-termina-explicar-piensa-matarla_0_9JVtfX3eWm.html). The newspaper writes that inflation persists and that the government has not explained how it intends to bring it down. Economist Miguel Ángel Broda told Clarín that "disinflation has been stalled for 14 months at 32% a year." Private forecasters surveyed by local media put October between 1.8% and 2.1%. The central bank's market expectations survey (REM) sees inflation for 2026 at 30% to 30.3%, [El Economista reported](https://eleconomista.com.ar/economia/la-desinflacion-tambien-estanco-precios-cierran-octubre-alzas-18-2-n99289).

Industries that grew behind tariff walls are shrinking under import competition. Textile production has fallen almost 34% in three years, and about 1,000 companies and 28,000 registered jobs have disappeared under Milei, according to a study by the industry group Fundación Pro Tejer, [Clarín reported](https://www.clarin.com/economia/efecto-importaciones-produccion-textil-cayo-34-anos-gestion-milei-perdieron-1000-empresas_0_7Cjj8ZmqfK.html). Installed capacity use in the sector is below 45%. The capital-goods engineering chamber said domestic industry could supply two-thirds of the equipment imported under the investment incentive regime for large projects (RIGI), [Ámbito reported](https://www.ambito.com/economia/rigi-advierten-que-dos-tercios-las-importaciones-pueden-ser-abastecidas-la-industria-local-n6343676). Ámbito added that the government appears to recognize the problem by organizing business matchmaking rounds.

The two stories are linked. Inflation near 2% a month with a managed peso makes Argentine production more expensive in dollar terms. That favors imports and squeezes local manufacturers. Industry groups want protection back. The government's position is that inefficient sectors built on decades of closed markets must shrink.

## What this means

The mechanism is the real exchange rate. When domestic prices rise faster than the peso depreciates, Argentine wages and costs rise in dollar terms. Importers and consumers of imported goods gain. Manufacturers and the tax base tied to them lose. From an Austrian view, liquidating capital that protection had misallocated is a cost of correction, not a policy error in itself. But the correction is only stable if money growth slows enough to bring inflation down. Otherwise the peso has to be devalued later, and that devaluation would hit the same holders of local-currency assets. A reading near the 1.8% consensus on Thursday is already priced. The precedent is the 1991 convertibility plan, whose fixed exchange rate eventually produced the 2001 crisis. The likelier outcome is monthly inflation staying near 2% into early 2027 and industry pressing harder for import restrictions, as long as the government keeps its exchange-rate band. A reading above 2.2%, or a widening gap between official and parallel exchange rates, would point to an earlier devaluation.

## What to watch

- Thursday's October inflation figure from Indec. A result above the 1.8% to 2.1% forecast range would show disinflation reversing, not just stalling.
- The gap between the official and parallel peso exchange rates. A widening gap would show savers expecting a devaluation.
- Any government move to restrict imports in textiles or capital goods. That would show industrial pressure changing trade policy.