# Brent Rebounds From Two-Month Low as Attacks on Hormuz Shipping Continue

Crude rose about 0.8% to near $92 a barrel early Wednesday after 37 vessels were attacked in and near the strait in October, and Iran kept open a conditional offer to reopen the waterway within two days.

- Published: 2026-11-11T05:05:05.566Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-11/brent-rebounds-from-two-month-low-as-attacks-on-hormuz-shipp
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-rises-from-two-month-low-as-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-iran-truce-hopes/articleshow/135722819.cms), [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Middle-East-Oil-Flows-Far-from-Normal-Despite-Signs-of-Oversupply.html), [The Hindu](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/rubio-says-no-need-to-attack-iran-as-diplomacy-gathers-pace/article71688168.ece), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-rise-from-2mth-low-with-focus-on-usiran-peace-inventories-5017522)

Brent crude rose about 0.8% to near $92.20 a barrel in Asian trading on Wednesday, and West Texas Intermediate traded near $86.53, [Business Standard reported](https://business-standard.com/amp/markets/commodities/oil-rises-from-2-month-low-as-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-truce-hopes-126111100088_1.html). Brent had touched a two-month low in the previous session after settling at $98.32 on November 6. According to [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-rises-from-two-month-low-as-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-iran-truce-hopes/articleshow/135722819.cms), the rebound followed reports of several attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. [Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-rise-from-2mth-low-with-focus-on-usiran-peace-inventories-5017522) also cited falling American crude inventories.

Shipping data shows the risk has not receded. Attackers struck 37 vessels in and near the strait in October, the highest monthly total since the war began, and 10 more so far in November, [Business Standard reported](https://business-standard.com/amp/markets/commodities/oil-rises-from-2-month-low-as-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-truce-hopes-126111100088_1.html). Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on what it called an unauthorized route. Analysts at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) said that even a deal would not restore normal flows until mines are cleared, insurers lower premiums and shipowners agree to sail.

Diplomatic signals point the other way. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after a Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Paris that "the economic campaign is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations," [The Hindu reported](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/rubio-says-no-need-to-attack-iran-as-diplomacy-gathers-pace/article71688168.ece). Tehran said its offer to reopen Hormuz within two days remains on the table. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has tied it to an end to the war on all fronts, [Dawn reported](https://www.dawn.com/news/2043645/iran-urges-us-to-meet-terms-for-hormuz-opening). OilPrice has described a reported Qatar-brokered interim arrangement under which Washington would release $8 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatar ([OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Sinks-to-94-as-Irans-8-Billion-Hormuz-Deal-Heads-to-Trump.html)). Neither government has confirmed those terms. Rubio called Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous."

The physical market is less tight than the attack count suggests. Vessel-tracking services have shown crude flows through Hormuz near pre-war levels for more than a month, and Middle Eastern benchmark grades have weakened for weeks, [OilPrice reported](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Middle-East-Oil-Flows-Far-from-Normal-Despite-Signs-of-Oversupply.html). The outlet said this points to a possible glut, even though trade patterns in the region remain far from normal.

## What this means

The price now depends on two opposing forces. Barrel volumes are close to normal and Gulf grades are weakening, which argues for lower prices. Insurance, mine risk and freight costs remain high, and these costs land on shippers and Asian importers rather than appearing in the headline Brent price. Washington wants lower pump prices without giving Tehran the funds and sanctions relief it demands. Tehran is using its threat to the strait, rather than its export volumes, as leverage. The consensus is wrong to read the weekly fall in Brent as the end of the risk premium, because the premium has moved into shipping and insurance. The likelier outcome is Brent trading in a range near current levels for several weeks, with sharp single-day rises after each tanker attack, as long as neither side abandons talks. A confirmed release of the frozen funds, together with a halt in attacks, would end that pattern and expose the oversupply. A strike on a loading terminal would end it in the other direction.

## What to watch

- Monthly counts of vessel attacks in and near Hormuz. A decline in November would show that Iran is limiting incidents to support a deal.
- Any confirmation from Washington, Doha or Tehran that the $8 billion in frozen funds is being released. That step would turn statements into a transaction.
- The price gap between Middle Eastern crude grades and Brent. Further weakness in Gulf grades would confirm that physical supply exceeds demand even while war-risk costs stay high.