# Oil Drops More Than $1 as Traders Bet on Iran and Ukraine Talks

The fall reversed Wednesday's 1% gain after Iran said it would keep its enriched uranium, and Tehran's chief negotiator said he is waiting for a formal US reply to seven conditions sent through Qatar.

- Published: 2026-11-12T05:17:13.227Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-12/oil-drops-more-than-1-as-traders-bet-on-iran-and-ukraine-tal
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: markets
- Sources: [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-drop-more-than-1-as-hopes-for-iran-ukraine-peace-talks-pressure-markets-5020171), [The Nation Thailand](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40073393), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/12/irans-chief-negotiator-tells-al-jazeera-ball-in-us)

Crude [fell more than $1 a barrel](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-drop-more-than-1-as-hopes-for-iran-ukraine-peace-talks-pressure-markets-5020171) in Asian trading on Thursday as hopes of progress in talks on the Middle East and on the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on prices. [Zee Business reported](https://www.zeebiz.com/markets/commodities/news-crude-oil-prices-fall-brent-slips-below-92-wti-under-86-will-prices-slide-towards-75-by-december-405452) that Brent slipped below $92 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) below $86. On Wednesday Brent settled near $93.23 and WTI near $87.51, according to [World Oil Monitor](https://worldoilmonitor.com/oil-price-charts), which put Brent about 12% lower over the past month but still about 43% higher than a year ago.

Thursday's fall reversed Wednesday's move. [The Nation Thailand reported](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40073393) that oil gained 1% after Iran vowed to retain its enriched uranium, which is the core US demand in the negotiations.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, told [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/12/irans-chief-negotiator-tells-al-jazeera-ball-in-us) that the "ball is in the US court." He said Tehran had sent its response through Qatar, which is mediating, and had set out seven conditions for entering peace talks. He named distrust of Washington as the main obstacle. Ghalibaf also said the Strait of Hormuz will [never return to its pre-war status](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/iran/strait-of-hormuz-will-never-return-to-pre-war-status-ghalibaf-says-ball-in-us-court-on-peace-talks) and that the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not apply to the strait. His earlier remarks followed what [Arab News described](https://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/iran-chief-negotiator-says-ball-in-us-court-to-prevent-war-3009545) as US defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the strait.

## What this means

Traders are taking risk premium out of crude on the prospect of talks, yet the two issues that decide the outcome are both still open: Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium and the legal regime in Hormuz. Ghalibaf's position that the strait's rules will change permanently matters more to physical markets than the diplomatic mood does. An Iranian claim to regulate passage would raise insurance and freight costs for every cargo, whether or not a deal is signed. The largest importers in Asia, including India, China, Japan and South Korea, carry most of that cost. Gulf producers with routes that avoid the strait gain relative value. Tehran wants sanctions relief and recognized leverage over the waterway. Washington wants the uranium out of the country. Each can impose costs on the other, and neither can force the other to agree. The precedent is 2019: after the attacks on tankers and on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq plant, the price spike faded within weeks once supply held. The likelier outcome is that crude trades in a wide range over the coming weeks, falling on headlines about talks and rising on statements about uranium or Hormuz, without returning to pre-war levels. This read is wrong if Washington formally accepts a framework that includes Iran's conditions and Tehran agrees to transfer or dilute its enriched stock.

## What to watch

- A formal US reply to Iran's seven conditions through Qatar, which would show whether talks move from statements to a negotiating text.
- Any Iranian announcement of inspection, toll or permit rules for ships in Hormuz, which would turn the political dispute into a lasting cost for shipping.
- The gap between Brent and WTI, which widens when traders pay more for barrels that do not depend on Gulf shipping lanes.