# Argentina's Monthly Inflation Reaches 2.2% in October, and Private Salaried Jobs Fall for a 15th Month

The October figure exceeded forecasts and leaves inflation running at close to 30% a year. Official employment data show workers moving from salaried jobs into self-employment, while President Javier Milei promises more economic opening and hints that he will seek re-election.

- Published: 2026-11-13T05:14:08.766Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-13/argentina-s-monthly-inflation-reaches-2-2-in-october-and-pri
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Clarín (Economía)](https://www.clarin.com/economia/inflacion-siempre-faltan-peso_0_rKBDmJPoxK.html), [Ámbito (Economía)](https://www.ambito.com/economia/el-empleo-asalariado-privado-sumo-15-meses-seguidos-baja-mientras-el-monotributo-anoto-su-mayor-alza-dos-anos-n6344697), [Clarín (Economía)](https://www.clarin.com/economia/milei-empresarios-apertura-economica-impacto-tecnologia-guino-planes-reeleccion_0_utbolupj6H.html)

Argentina's consumer prices rose 2.2% in October, more than expected, and the figure [confirms that disinflation has stalled](https://www.clarin.com/economia/inflacion-siempre-faltan-peso_0_rKBDmJPoxK.html), Clarín reported. A monthly rate of 2.2% compounds to about 30% a year. Private consultancies had expected a rise of [between 1.8% and 2%](https://eleconomista.com.ar/economia/la-desinflacion-tambien-estanco-precios-cierran-octubre-alzas-18-2-n99289), El Economista reported.

Clarín listed the causes of the persistent inflation as inertia, indexation of contracts and wages, price shocks, high interest rates, and markets dominated by a few firms with little competition. The diagnosis matters. A fiscal surplus and tight money stopped the high inflation of 2023 and 2024. The last few points come from contracts that reset to past inflation and from sectors where a few firms set prices.

The labor market is changing in structure. Data from the SIPA, Argentina's integrated social-security system, showed that [private salaried employment fell for 15 consecutive months](https://www.ambito.com/economia/el-empleo-asalariado-privado-sumo-15-meses-seguidos-baja-mientras-el-monotributo-anoto-su-mayor-alza-dos-anos-n6344697) through August, Ámbito reported. Registrations under the monotributo, the simplified tax regime for the self-employed, posted their largest rise in two years. Real wages recovered but stayed at a very low level.

Milei told business leaders at the Endeavor gala that he plans [more economic opening](https://www.clarin.com/economia/milei-empresarios-apertura-economica-impacto-tecnologia-guino-planes-reeleccion_0_utbolupj6H.html) and talked about the effect of technology on jobs. Clarín read his remarks as a hint at his plans for re-election in 2027.

## What this means

The mechanism is inertia. Once the fiscal deficit is closed, the remaining inflation sits in indexed contracts and concentrated sectors, and high real interest rates slow the economy without cutting those prices quickly. The exposed parties are holders of Argentine peso debt, who need real returns to stay positive, salaried workers, and the government's political capital before 2027. The stall was partly expected by consultancies, but the overshoot is new. The rise in self-employment registrations is a sign of informality, which reduces tax revenue and pension contributions over time. The consensus treats opening the economy to imports as a reliable way to lower prices in concentrated sectors. That works only if the exchange rate stays stable while imports rise. Brazil's Real Plan in the 1990s is a precedent. Monthly inflation stayed in the low single digits for years until indexation was removed contract by contract. The desk's read is that Argentine monthly inflation will likely stay near 2% for several months rather than fall quickly. That depends on the government avoiding a faster devaluation and leaving indexation rules unchanged. This read is wrong if the government removes indexation in regulated prices and November inflation drops clearly below the October level.

## What to watch

- Argentina's November inflation reading. A second figure above 2% would confirm that disinflation has stopped.
- Peso exchange-rate policy. A faster crawl or a wider band would raise import prices and push inflation higher.
- Monthly SIPA employment data. A continued shift from salaried work to self-employment would erode the tax base before the 2027 elections.