# Iran drafts next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero

Brent was headed for a second weekly loss near $96 a barrel after President Trump said a deal with Iran was not needed to end the war and the US blockade would stay.

- Published: 2026-11-14T05:15:42.881Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/2026-11-14/iran-drafts-next-year-s-budget-on-the-assumption-that-oil-re
- Publisher: Polylog (Global desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [OilPrice](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Braces-for-a-Budget-Without-Oil-Revenue.html), [Investing.com Commodities](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-hold-gains-as-trump-sidelines-vance-from-iran-diplomacy-5023781), [IRNA (Farsi)](https://www.irna.ir/news/86320783/%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3-%DA%A9%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%A9-%D9%85%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AF), [Entekhab](https://www.entekhab.ir/003yPk)

Iran is drafting next year's budget on the premise that [oil revenue could fall to zero](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Braces-for-a-Budget-Without-Oil-Revenue.html). Mohammad Ghasemi, a senior budget official, told the government on Monday to prepare for that scenario, according to OilPrice, which said the country appears to be weeks away from it. Iranian outlets reported Ghasemi's warning in more detail. [According to Entekhab](https://www.entekhab.ir/003yPk), he said the war has hurt the budget in two ways, by cutting revenue and by raising spending, and that the deficit should not be financed by borrowing from the central bank.

The shortfall is not new. In the current year's budget, revenue from oil and oil products had already been cut to 263 thousand billion tomans from 605 thousand billion the year before, [Donya-e-Eqtesad reported](https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/tiny/news-3729634). Tanker trackers cited by Bloomberg reported in October that Iran's [main loading terminals had stood empty for weeks](https://gcaptain.com/irans-main-oil-terminals-remain-empty-as-us-blockade-bites/) under the US naval blockade.

The central bank will now explain its response. The state news agency IRNA said the governor of the Central Bank of Iran will go to parliament this week to [report on monetary, currency and credit policy](https://www.irna.ir/news/86320783/%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3-%DA%A9%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%A9-%D9%85%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AF), banking supervision and economic developments.

The global market moved the other way. Oil fell [more than 2% for the week](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-hold-gains-as-trump-sidelines-vance-from-iran-diplomacy-5023781) as fears of renewed US-Iran fighting eased. Brent traded near $95.50 to $96 on Friday, on course for [a 2.3% weekly drop after a 16% fall the week before](https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-prices-set-second-weekly-decline-trump-sticks-iran-blockade). President Trump wrote on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war and that the blockade and sanctions would stay. He also moved Vice President JD Vance off Iran diplomacy. Supply risks remain, including [Iranian attacks on supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities at Yanbu](https://thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/11/13/oil-on-track-to-post-second-weekly-decline-as-trump-eases-fears-of-renewed-war-with-iran), according to market reports.

The market has priced in Iran's exports staying off the market. Iran, meanwhile, is preparing for a long period without them.

## What this means

The pressure on Iran works through its budget. With oil income near zero, Tehran can cut spending, raise taxes on a shrinking economy, or have the central bank finance the deficit. Iranian governments have usually chosen the third option, and the result has been a weaker rial and higher inflation. Ghasemi's warning against central-bank borrowing is the official position. Whether the governor's testimony this week holds to it will show what Tehran can actually do. Iranian households and businesses holding rial savings are the most exposed, and they have every reason to move into dollars, gold or property. In the oil market, prices near $96 with Iran's barrels already missing mean the risk premium now depends on the Gulf routes. The consensus reads Trump's comments as lowering the chance of renewed war. They also mean no settlement and no return of Iranian supply. The likelier outcome over the coming months is faster money creation in Iran and a weaker rial, with Brent held up by the risk to shipping more than by lost barrels. This depends on the blockade staying in place. It would be wrong if Washington and Tehran agree on terms that let Kharg Island resume loadings.

## What to watch

- Watch what the central bank governor tells parliament about financing the deficit. Any sign of direct lending to the government would show the "no central-bank borrowing" rule being dropped.
- Watch the rial's open-market rate in Tehran. A sharp fall would show households pricing in money-financed deficits before the budget passes.
- Watch tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi export facilities. They decide whether Brent's risk premium returns even without Iranian supply.