# Anthropic's Own Scenario Model Puts Cognitive Unemployment at 17.9 Percent in Its Fastest-Growth Case

The explorer published by the company's economics team shows unemployment staying inside historical ranges in moderate scenarios, and knowledge-worker wages falling more than 10 percent only when growth exceeds anything on record.

- Published: 2026-09-13T06:28:59.111Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-13/anthropic-s-own-scenario-model-puts-cognitive-unemployment-a
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Startup Fortune](https://startupfortune.com/anthropic-says-ai-could-grow-the-economy-or-wreck-the-job-market-by-2030/)

Anthropic's economics team published Scenarios for our Economic Future, an interactive explorer built on a technical report, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, by economist Korinek and coauthors. It projects labor-market and output o…

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