# Anthropic's Economists Put a Range on AI's Effect on Output and Jobs Through 2030

Across three scenarios, United States gross domestic product ends 2030 between 1.6% and 32.4% above a path without AI, with capital's share of income rising to as much as 54.8%.

- Published: 2026-09-14T06:22:55.303Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-14/anthropic-s-economists-put-a-range-on-ai-s-effect-on-output
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios)

Anthropic's economics team published Scenarios for our Economic Future on September 9, an interactive explorer built on a technical report by Anton Korinek and colleagues. It sets out three paths, labeled modest, substantial, and extreme, a…

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