# Anthropic's economists put three US growth paths to 2030 into the policy debate

Output ends between $34.1 trillion and $44.4 trillion in 2025 dollars, and knowledge-worker unemployment ends between 2.9% and 17.9%, depending on the scenario.

- Published: 2026-09-15T06:27:29.669Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-15/anthropic-s-economists-put-three-us-growth-paths-to-2030-int
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios)

Anthropic's economics team published Scenarios for our Economic Future on September 9, and the numbers are now circulating in Washington alongside the pacing argument. The report models three paths for the US economy. In the modest scenario…

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