# Anthropic Models Capital's Income Share Rising to 54.8% by 2030 in Its Most Extreme AI Scenario

The lab's economics team published three paths in which United States output ends 1.6%, 8.3% or 32.4% above a no-AI baseline, with knowledge-worker unemployment at 2.9%, 4.5% or 17.9%.

- Published: 2026-09-20T06:20:15.045Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-20/anthropic-models-capital-s-income-share-rising-to-54-8-by-20
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research — Societal Impacts](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts), [Open Magazine](https://openthemagazine.com/technology/ai-could-boost-us-economy-but-squeeze-jobs-and-wages-anthropic-warns)

Anthropic's economics team published Scenarios for our Economic Future, a model of how AI affects growth, employment and wages through 2030. It runs three cases, labelled modest, substantial and extreme, keyed to how fast capabilities impro…

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