# Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the 2030 Economy, Including One With 11.9 Percent Unemployment

The extreme case pairs 15.4 percent annual growth with a fall in labour's share of income from roughly 60 percent to 45 percent, and the authors attach no probabilities to any scenario.

- Published: 2026-09-21T06:21:17.793Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-21/anthropic-publishes-three-scenarios-for-the-2030-economy-inc
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/09/11/anthropic-says-ai-could-bring-both-15-growth-and-mass-unemployment-by-2030)

Anthropic's economics team has published a formal model of how artificial intelligence could reshape growth, employment and wages by 2030, structured as three scenarios it labels modest, substantial and extreme. The interactive version lets…

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