# Anthropic's Economic Model Puts 2030 US Output Between $34.1 Trillion and $44.4 Trillion Depending on AI Adoption

In the most aggressive of three scenarios, annual growth reaches 15 percent while unemployment among knowledge workers climbs to roughly 18 percent against under 4 percent for everyone else.

- Published: 2026-09-23T11:26:37.007Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-23/anthropic-s-economic-model-puts-2030-us-output-between-34-1
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios)

Anthropic's economics team has published an interactive model of how AI may affect growth, jobs and wages through 2030, based on a technical report by Korinek and colleagues. It presents three scenarios and explicitly declines to predict wh…

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