# Anthropic Publishes Three 2030 Economic Scenarios, With Knowledge-Work Employment Falling 21.5% in the Middle Case

The model's extreme path has United States output growing 15% a year while labor's share of national income drops from 60% to 45.2%, and the authors attach no probabilities.

- Published: 2026-09-26T06:26:42.860Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-26/anthropic-publishes-three-2030-economic-scenarios-with-knowl
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Economic Index](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Societal Impacts](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts)

Anthropic's economics team has released an interactive model of how AI could affect growth, jobs, and wages in the United States by 2030, presented as three scenarios rather than a forecast. The framework represents the economy as bundles o…

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