# Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios Putting 2030 US Output Between $34.1 Trillion and $44.4 Trillion

The extreme scenario assumes 15 percent annual growth and roughly 18 percent unemployment among knowledge workers, while more than 10,000 surveyed Americans expect outcomes closer to the middle scenario.

- Published: 2026-09-27T06:30:19.445Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-27/anthropic-publishes-three-scenarios-putting-2030-us-output-b
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts)

Anthropic's economics team released an interactive model laying out three paths for the United States economy through 2030, published as Scenarios for our Economic Future. The modest scenario puts 2030 output at $34.1 trillion, about 1.6 pe…

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