# Anthropic's 2030 Economic Model Puts United States Output Between $34.1 Trillion and $44.4 Trillion

The lab's three published scenarios attach no probabilities, and in the middle case, where artificial intelligence performs half of all knowledge work, knowledge-worker wages stay roughly flat while other workers gain.

- Published: 2026-09-28T06:48:56.769Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-28/anthropic-s-2030-economic-model-puts-united-states-output-be
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts)

Anthropic's economics team published an interactive scenario explorer built on a technical report, "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI," which divides the economy into cognitive occupations, covering management, professional, sales an…

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