# Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the US Economy in 2030, With Labor's Income Share Falling to 45 Cents

Its extreme case projects near 15 percent annual growth, $44.4 trillion of output, and knowledge-worker pay down more than 10 percent.

- Published: 2026-09-29T06:12:03.689Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-09-29/anthropic-publishes-three-scenarios-for-the-us-economy-in-20
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research: Societal Impacts](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts)

Anthropic's economics team released an interactive scenario explorer, built on a technical report that models how AI capability, autonomy and adoption feed through to United States output, employment, wages, and the split of income between…

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