# Anthropic Publishes Three Scenarios for the US Economy in 2030, Including One With 11.9% Unemployment

Its modest path has GDP up 1.6% to $34.1 trillion, while the extreme path has output up 32.4% to $44.4 trillion and labor's share of income falling from about 60% to 45%.

- Published: 2026-10-03T06:33:24.401Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-10-03/anthropic-publishes-three-scenarios-for-the-us-economy-in-20
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Open Magazine](https://openthemagazine.com/technology/ai-could-boost-us-economy-but-squeeze-jobs-and-wages-anthropic-warns), [Startup Fortune](https://startupfortune.com/anthropic-says-ai-could-grow-the-economy-or-wreck-the-job-market-by-2030/)

Anthropic's economics team has published a scenario model of how AI may affect US growth, employment, and wages by 2030, paired with a public survey comparing readers' expectations against those of more than 10,000 Americans. The model runs…

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