# Anthropic's 2030 scenarios put US output up to 32.4% above a no-AI path while labor's share of income falls to 45.2%

The typical answers in Anthropic's survey of 10,980 Americans imply an economy about 10% larger than it would be without AI, with unemployment near 5%. Those answers sit close to the middle of Anthropic's three scenarios.

- Published: 2026-10-05T06:00:43.302Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-10-05/anthropic-s-2030-scenarios-put-us-output-up-to-32-4-above-a
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research (Economic Scenarios)](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Anthropic Research (Societal Impacts)](https://www.anthropic.com/research/team/societal-impacts), [Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/anthropic-modeled-what-ai-could-do-by-2030-the-economy-gets-32-percent-richer-while-workers-get-left-behind)

Anthropic's economics team has published an interactive model of AI's effect on the US economy through 2030. It sets out three scenarios and lets users compare their own expectations with the answers of more than 10,000 Americans. The model…

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