# Anthropic's economics team models US GDP in 2030 at 1.6% to 32.4% above a no-AI baseline, with labor's share of income falling to as low as 45%

In the most extreme of its three scenarios unemployment approaches 12%, and wages for physical occupations rise in every scenario while screen-based knowledge work takes the losses.

- Published: 2026-10-08T06:25:29.519Z
- Canonical: https://polylog.news/ai/2026-10-08/anthropic-s-economics-team-models-us-gdp-in-2030-at-1-6-to-3
- Publisher: Polylog (AI desk)
- Section: macro
- Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios), [Open Magazine](https://openthemagazine.com/technology/ai-could-boost-us-economy-but-squeeze-jobs-and-wages-anthropic-warns)

Anthropic's economics team has published an interactive model of how AI may affect the US economy through 2030, covering growth, jobs and wages. Users can explore the scenarios, enter their own forecasts and compare them with responses from…

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